Crypto analytics firm Glassnode has found that 6.04 million Bitcoin, equal to 30.2% of the circulating supply, currently faces potential quantum-related risk.
According to its recent report, this potential risk exists because the public keys tied to those coins are already visible on-chain. Based on current market prices, the exposed Bitcoin is worth more than $452 billion.
Key Points
- Glassnode found that 30.2% of Bitcoin’s issued supply, or about 6.04 million BTC, currently faces at-rest quantum exposure.
- Of this figure, structural exposure accounts for 1.92 million BTC, while operational exposure reaches 4.12 million BTC.
- Exchange-related balances represent about 1.66 million BTC, or roughly 40% of operationally exposed Bitcoin.
- The report estimates 13.99 million BTC remains protected because related public keys are still hidden on-chain.
Bitcoin Supply Exposed to Quantum Risk
The report comes as concerns around quantum computing grow within the crypto industry. Notably, blockchain experts have continued to discuss whether future quantum machines could eventually break parts of Bitcoin’s security model.
Glassnode said its research does not predict when such attacks could become possible. The company instead focused on measuring which coins already have visible public keys and could therefore face exposure under a future quantum attack scenario.
The company found that 6.04 million BTC, worth $452 billion, faces exposure to quantum risks. Of this figure, Glassnode divided the exposed supply into two main categories.
Specifically, structural exposure makes up 1.92 million BTC, representing 9.6% of the issued supply, while operational exposure accounts for the larger share at 4.12 million BTC, or 20.6%. Further, exchange-related balances alone contribute 1.63 million BTC, equal to 8.1% of all issued Bitcoin.
Meanwhile, according to the report, 13.99 million BTC, or 69.8% of the issued supply, does not currently face this type of at-rest exposure because the related public keys remain hidden on-chain.
Why Public-Key Visibility is Important
Glassnode explained that under current computing systems, attackers cannot realistically derive Bitcoin private keys from public keys. However, a sufficiently advanced quantum computer using Shor’s algorithm could theoretically reverse the process.
As a result, the main issue is whether a public key already appears on-chain. If the public key remains hidden, the coin stays protected under this specific at-rest model. If the public key is already public, an attacker would not need to wait for the owner to move the coins before attempting to target them.
The report then separated at-rest exposure from on-spend exposure. Glassnode focused on “at-rest” exposure, which involves coins sitting in outputs where public keys are already visible. In contrast, on-spend exposure happens when a transaction temporarily reveals a public key during the spending process.
Glassnode stressed that coins that are “safe” in the current context simply mean the public key is not currently exposed on-chain. It does not mean the coins are fully protected against every possible future quantum threat.
Bitcoin Under Structural Exposure
The analytical firm noted that structural exposure involves vulnerability tied to Bitcoin’s script design. In these cases, certain output types reveal public keys by default, even when users follow proper wallet-management practices.
The structurally exposed category includes early Pay-to-Public-Key outputs connected to Satoshi-era coins, legacy bare multisig structures such as P2MS, and modern Taproot outputs known as P2TR.
Although these formats serve different purposes and come from different periods in Bitcoin’s history, they all expose public keys or similar data directly on-chain.
The report estimates that structurally unsafe Bitcoin totals 1.92 million BTC, or 9.6% of the issued supply. Glassnode said Satoshi-era holdings represent the most lasting form of structural exposure because lost or inactive coins cannot easily move into safer address structures.
The company also called attention to Taproot. Notably, while this model improves privacy, efficiency, and scripting flexibility, output keys remain visible on-chain.
Bitcoin Under Operational Exposure
Glassnode said operational exposure comes mainly from wallet behavior, not script design. In these situations, coins may begin in safer address formats, but practices such as address reuse, partial spending, or custody management later expose the public keys.
The report explained that address types, including P2PKH, P2SH, P2WPKH, and P2WSH, normally keep public keys hidden while coins remain at rest. However, once a transaction reveals the public key, any remaining balance tied to that same address loses its protection.
Glassnode found that operationally unsafe Bitcoin totals 4.12 million BTC, or 20.6% of the issued supply. This figure is 2.1 times larger than the structurally exposed balance.
Specifically, exchange-related holdings alone account for 1.66 million BTC, equal to 8.3% of the total supply, representing roughly 40% of all operationally exposed Bitcoin.
DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.
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