Bitcoin is attempting to clear the $75,000–$77,000 resistance zone after two rejections in March. Options market data offer a detailed look at positioning, volatility expectations, and underlying sentiment, according to on-chain analytics provider Glassnode.
Implied volatility has been easing rather than expanding across all maturities. Both short- and longer-dated contracts are being repriced lower, as the term structure stays flat. Moreover, one-month implied volatility is at 41.5%, just below the three-month level.
Demand for protection is also softening. Put premiums have lost ground against calls, pointing to reduced hedging interest and a gradual repositioning toward a more constructive stance. The shift is most visible at the front end of the curve, where one-week skew has fallen roughly six points and one-month skew about three points over the past week.
With options now appearing fairly priced, participants are undecided about whether to capitalize on the current volatility or prepare for the next leg.
Yet flows over the past seven days have turned notably bullish. Some 32% of taker activity has come from outright call buying, reflecting active upside positioning rather than simply the unwinding of protective hedges. That buying is helping to underpin the price advance.
 
The $75,000 level itself has become a significant gamma trigger. Bullish flows have created roughly $5 billion in negative gamma exposure between $74,000 and $78,000. A clean break higher through that band could therefore accelerate mechanically as market makers adjust their hedges.
That said, downside protection at the $70,000 strike is still in place, with net premium still tilted toward puts. However, the imbalance is not widening, suggesting demand for insurance is steady rather than accelerating.
As it stands, the options market is sending mixed signals. Skew is compressing, and volatility expectations are not rising, even as flows turn constructive. The current rally is not being driven by derivatives positioning, and overall exposure remains tentative.
Bitcoin rose 4.22% in the past 24 hours to $77,912.84, reaching a new high and outpacing the broader crypto market’s 3.65% gain. The move was driven primarily by easing U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions after Iran reopened the Strait of Hormuz, thereby unwinding safe-haven flows and supporting risk assets.
Meanwhile, momentum increased because of recent institutional inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a derivatives-driven short squeeze. A hold above $77,000 keeps a test of $80,000 in view, while a break below $75,000 could trigger profit-taking and a pullback toward $73,500 support.
Be the first to comment