Current market structure
Gold remains in a clear corrective bearish structure across 4 Hour and Day time frames. Price has broken below the major 100-day Simple Moving Average and continues to form lower highs and lower lows.
The latest decline has brought XAU/USD Spot Gold prices to a multi week low of $4282 according to investing.com data.
Strong and persistent fall in prices have created oversold conditions in small time frames which is being reflected in current rebound attempts testing $4379, precise $98 bounce back off the lows.
Fundamental analysis
USD and Treasury yields remain the key headwinds. The U.S. 10Y yield has approached 4.82%, while DXY is near 99.82.
Renewed US–Iran tensions have pushed oil prices higher, reviving inflation concerns and reducing expectations for easier Fed policy.
August ADP private payrolls increased only 38K vs 47K expected, suggesting some labour-market cooling and potentially limiting the bearish pressure from Fed expectations.
Friday’s US NFP remains the major near-term volatility catalyst.
Fundamental bias: Neutral-to-bearish, until yields/USD ease materially.
Technical analysis
H1: Bearish, but short-term selling is stretched. RSI(14) ≈ 47.
H4: Strong bearish momentum; price remains below major moving averages. RSI(14) ≈ 28, indicating oversold conditions and increasing rebound risk.
D1: Medium-term structure has turned corrective/bearish after rejection from the $4,700+ zone. Price remains below the key long-term trend area around $4,480–4,530.
Key levels
- Resistance: $4,380 → $4,420 → $4,480–4,503.
- Support: $4,300 → $4,282 → $4,240.
Major downside support: $4,160.
NOTE: These are author’s personal views based on price action dynamics, meant for educational purposes and not a trading advice.
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