Here’s What He’s Betting on

A $6.39 Million Buy Extends a Two-Week Streak

Lookonchain flagged the latest purchase within hours of execution, tracing it to a wallet linked to Hayes, the BitMEX co-founder who now serves as chief investment officer of the family office Maelstrom. The accrual brings Hayes’ total since July 15 to 7,213 ETH worth $13.87 million at an average entry of $1,923.

That average puts the position about $301,000 underwater at current prices, which is Hayes’ third documented ETH purchase of the month, following a 646 ETH acquisition through an over-the-counter trade with Galaxy Digital and a 1,293 ETH buy (together pushing his running total past 3,270 ETH).

Hayes is best known for co-founding derivatives exchange BitMEX before stepping down as chief executive in 2021, and he has since built a public track record as a vocal macro commentator, alternating between aggressive crypto accumulation calls and defensive sell-offs tied to shifting liquidity conditions. His trades are closely watched onchain because Maelstrom discloses little about its formal positioning, making wallet-tracking services like Lookonchain the primary window into his activity.

From a $606,000 Loss to a Reversal

The buying spree marks an abrupt reversal from Hayes’ posture in June, when a wallet tied to him sold 6,000 ETH for roughly $10.14 million at an average price near $1,690. That sale locked in an estimated $606,000 loss on ETH he had accumulated weeks earlier at an average entry near $1,793, breaking from his usual pattern of buying weakness and selling strength.

This is not the first time Hayes has whipsawed between selling and buying within a short window. In August 2025, a wallet linked to him sold $13.35 million in crypto, including 2,373 ETH, citing concerns over a looming U.S. tariff bill, even as he maintained that bitcoin would eventually test $100,000 and ether would test $3,000.

That underlying conviction has stayed consistent for months because in an April note, Hayes argued that wartime-driven inflation, a regulatory change freeing up bank balance sheets, and coordination between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve would combine to push total credit creation past $4 trillion, concluding: “That’s why I believe bitcoin is going higher.”

He has since extended a version of that liquidity argument to ether, treating pullbacks like June’s as entry points rather than reasons to retreat.

Ether’s Rebound Meets Institutional Demand

Hayes’ buying lines up with a broader recovery in ether, which changed hands near $1,900 on July 28, up roughly 20% for the month, even though the token remains down about 49% from a year earlier. The rebound has coincided with renewed institutional appetite as ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) pulled in $103.90 million during the week of July 20-24 alone, roughly three times the $33.79 million bitcoin funds attracted over the same stretch, according to Bitcoin.com News.

That inflow gap suggests institutional allocators are rotating toward ether even as individual traders like Hayes navigate the asset with far more volatility in their own positioning. Whether that demand holds will likely shape whether Hayes’ latest bet closes the gap on his $301,000 paper loss or deepens it.