Here’s What History Says Could Come Next

XRP recently posted the lowest monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading in its entire history amid the steep June 2026 price crash. 

Specifically, in June 2026, XRP’s monthly RSI closed at 40.59 after the price dropped by 21.97% during the month. This decline marked XRP’s biggest monthly loss since February 2025 and showed how strong the recent downward pressure has been.

The RSI level of 40.59 is especially important because it marks XRP’s steepest ever monthly reading, even lower than what XRP recorded during major bearish periods, including the COVID crash in March 2020 and the Terra ecosystem collapse in May 2022. 

Interestingly, XRP has managed to stay above the pivotal $1 price level despite the deeply oversold RSI. Notably, the price closed June at $1.03. So far in July 2026, XRP has seen a slight bounce to $1.05, but the RSI remains weak at 40.97 at press time. This suggests that while the price has stabilized a bit, momentum is still low.

When XRP RSI Floor Came Before Upward Rallies

Historical data shows that when XRP’s monthly RSI falls to such low levels, it often indicates that the market is close to the cycle bottom or a rebound may be imminent.

For instance, in October 2024, XRP dropped by 16.74%, which pushed the Relative Strength Index down from 52.57 in the previous month to 48.27.

Soon after, the market turned upward in November 2024, triggered by strong bullish sentiment following Donald Trump’s election victory. XRP eventually climbed from $0.50 at the October close to a high of $3.4 by January 2025.

Another example comes from February 2017, when XRP declined by 12.28%, bringing the RSI down to 47.18. Although the cycle bottom had already formed at $0.0030 in January 2017, the drop in RSI still came just before a strong rally. 

Starting in March 2017, XRP pushed higher and eventually reached $3.31 in January 2018. During this period, the price increased by more than 59,000%.

When XRP RSI Floor Marked Cycle Bottoms

In other cases, the steep RSI drop marked the cycle low. For instance, in June 2022, XRP fell by 21.01% during a wider market downturn caused by the Terra collapse in May 2022. 

During that period, the RSI dropped to 43.91, which was its lowest level at the time. Interestingly, this RSI floor also coincided with XRP’s bottom of $0.28 in that same month. 

Although a full recovery took nearly two years, the price never went below $0.28 after June 2022, with the market recording several short-term rallies before the stronger move in November 2024.

In addition, XRP showed similar behavior during the COVID crash in March 2020. Notably, the price fell by 24.06% that month, coinciding with an RSI drop to 43.75. 

Just like in June 2022, the RSI drop in March 2020 occurred alongside XRP’s cycle low of $0.1140 during that downturn. In the months that followed, the market gradually improved, leading to a peak of $1.96 by April 2021.

XRP Now Deeply Oversold

Now, with the RSI at 40.59 in June 2026, XRP is again in a zone that has often appeared near major turning points. The recent June 2026 low of $1.0079 could mark the bottom of the current downtrend, or the RSI floor could mean that a recovery may begin soon.

Another momentum indicator confirms XRP’s oversold position. Notably, the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) dropped to -134.61 in June 2026, its lowest level since the COVID crash in March 2020, about six years ago. 

What stands out is that XRP has reached these levels while still holding above $1. If past patterns play out again, this could set the stage for a recovery. Such a move could even push XRP toward a new all-time high.

That said, the broader market still looks weak, and this could delay any recovery. While history suggests that very low RSI levels often come before a rebound, it is still unclear when the move might begin.