Honeywell (HON) Stock Gains but Don’t Be Fooled by the Doubled EPS Guidance

TLDR

• Honeywell Technologies updated its 2026 EPS guidance to $7.90–$8.30, doubling the prior range of $3.95–$4.15 due to a 1-for-2 reverse stock split effective June 29.
• The guidance change is a mechanical adjustment, not a fundamental improvement — actual earnings expectations are unchanged.
• Stale Wall Street consensus estimates (currently $10.75 per share) could trigger short-term volatility from algorithmic traders.
• HON stock was up around 0.4%–1.6% in Thursday premarket trading, hovering near $221–$223.
• Analysts are broadly bullish on HON with a consensus Buy rating, while Honeywell Aerospace (HONA) has a lower Buy rate of 42% vs the typical 55–60% S&P 500 average.

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Honeywell Technologies (HON) stock edged higher Thursday after the company updated its full-year earnings guidance — but investors should know the headline numbers are more math than magic.

Honeywell International Inc., HON

HON was up about 0.4% to 1.6% in premarket trading, touching $221.25 to $223.77. The S&P 500 futures were up just 0.1% at the same time.

The company said Wednesday it now expects adjusted earnings per share of $7.90 to $8.30 for fiscal 2026. That compares to its prior guidance of $3.95 to $4.15. On the surface, that looks like a doubling. In reality, it’s an adjustment to reflect the 1-for-2 reverse stock split that became effective on June 29.

Honeywell reaffirmed its full-year sales outlook of $19.9 billion to $20.2 billion. For the second half of fiscal 2026, it expects sales of $10.1 to $10.3 billion, with adjusted EPS of $4.40 to $4.70.

The reverse split reduced outstanding common stock from roughly 634 million to 317 million. Fewer shares, higher per-share numbers — the underlying business hasn’t changed.

One Risk Worth Watching

Here’s the catch: Wall Street analysts don’t update their models overnight. The current FactSet consensus for HON 2026 EPS sits at $10.75, with estimates ranging from $4.14 to $11.21. Those numbers are stale.

That mismatch creates a window where algorithmic or short-term traders might react to published figures that no longer reflect post-split reality. It’s a small risk, but it’s real.

Honeywell said it will provide more detail on Q2 results during its earnings call on July 23.

Where Analysts Stand

Most of Wall Street remains bullish on HON. The stock carries a consensus Buy rating. JPMorgan maintained an Overweight but trimmed its price target to $250 on July 7. Citigroup kept its Buy and cut its target to $260 on July 1. Deutsche Bank maintained Buy and raised its target to $263 on June 30. The average analyst price target sits at around $257.

Technically, HON is trading about 1.2% below its 50-day simple moving average of $221.72. The 52-week low of $218.70 is the key support level to watch on the downside. The RSI stands at 45.82 — neutral territory, neither overbought nor oversold.

For context on the split: a $1,000 position in HON before the spin is now worth about $971, down roughly 3%. That same position is up about 9% from Barron’s early June buy call ahead of the spin.

Honeywell Aerospace (HONA), the spun-off entity, has 12 analysts covering it so far. Only 42% rate it a Buy — below the typical 55–60% S&P 500 average. The average price target for HONA is around $262.

HON earnings are due July 23.