Hormuz reopening cools oil shock as Polymarket no-cut 2026 Fed odds dip

Fed Rate Cuts 2026: Polymarket “0 Cuts” Odds Slip to 79.5% as Oil-Driven Inflation Eases and AI Spend Sparks New Concern

Oil prices falling after the Strait of Hormuz reopened has eased one inflation risk, but fresh concern that AI investment could push up costs is filtering into rate expectations. On Polymarket, traders in the “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder continue to heavily favor a no-cuts outcome, though the leading contract has slipped to 79.5%.

Key Takeaways

• Polymarket prices a 79.5% chance that the Federal Reserve makes 0 rate cuts in 2026.
• Traders are weighing lower energy-driven inflation against the possibility that AI-related capital spending lifts inflation and raises the neutral rate.
• The market resolves on Dec. 31, 2026; the leading 0-cuts contract is down from 82.1% to 79.5%.

Oil prices have been tumbling after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, a shift that could reduce the risk of a broader and more persistent inflation upswing tied to energy. Attention is increasingly turning to whether artificial intelligence investment could become a new inflation pressure point as large technology companies ramp up spending on specialized computing chips and data centers that require intensive cooling. TD Cowen estimated major hyperscalers would spend $745 billion this year, and projected spending by those firms could rise to about 3% of GDP next year from under 0.5% in 2020. The report said the demand for components and labor tied to AI infrastructure is beginning to show up in inflation data and construction-worker demand, with knock-on effects across other sectors that use similar chips. One economist quoted said the initial AI buildout phase could be inflationary and push the neutral rate higher, while another argued tech revolutions often lift prices before productivity gains later help cool inflation.

Polymarket Data: $39.21M Volume on 2026 Rate-Cut Ladder With 0 Cuts at 79.5%, 1 Cut at 12.5%, and 2 Cuts at 4.05%

In Polymarket’s ladder market “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” with $39.21 million in volume, positioning remains concentrated in the lowest outcomes. The “0 (0 bps)” rung trades at 79.5% Yes versus 20.5% No, keeping no cuts as the dominant view. Higher-cut rungs are priced as long shots: “1 (25 bps)” sits at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No, while “2 (50 bps)” is 4.05% Yes / 95.95% No. Farther out, “3 (75 bps)” is marked at 1.05% Yes / 98.95% No, underscoring that traders see multiple cuts in 2026 as unlikely despite the market’s incremental pullback in the lead contract.

Watch whether the 0-cuts contract holds the 75%–80% range and whether odds migrate from 0 cuts toward 1 cut, a shift that would show up first as higher Yes pricing on the 1 (25 bps) rung ahead of the Dec. 31, 2026 resolution.

Beyond Fed Policy: Other High-Volume Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching Across Energy, AI, and Macro Risks

Beyond the longer-dated rate-cut ladder, traders are also concentrating on nearer-term policy catalysts and other cross-asset signals on Polymarket. In “Fed Decision in July?” the leading “No change” outcome is priced at 80.5% with $21.83 million in volume, keeping attention on how incoming data might shift expectations across the curve.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$39,209,141

Top strike rungs

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