IMO drafts evacuation plan for 800 ships in Persian Gulf amid tensions

The International Maritime Organization has drafted an evacuation plan for 800 ships stranded in the Persian Gulf. As naval tensions persist, the market for US escorts through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30 is at 11.5% YES, down from 24% a week ago.

Market reaction

The IMO evacuation plan covers 800 ships, but traders have moved away from betting on near-term US naval intervention. The chance of US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 sits at 11.5%, down nearly 10 points from last week’s 24%. The 10-day term structure is flat, with no significant moves since a 1-point spike to 16% at 12:59 AM yesterday.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization market remains untraded. No one is taking positions on when normal shipping operations resume, which suggests traders want clearer de-escalation signals before committing.

Why it matters

The escort market trades about $1,197 in USDC daily, and $1,246 is enough to move the price 5 points. This is a thin market where modest capital can shift odds meaningfully. A YES share at 11.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.67x return. But the steady decline from 24% to 14.5% over the past week shows traders are pricing out US intervention within the next 10 days.

What to watch

The IMO plan’s actual implementation depends on confirmed de-escalation and mine clearance. The key catalyst is whether the US Navy launches Operation Epic Escort, which would likely push escort odds sharply higher. Without that, the market stays thin and speculative. Watch for US Central Command statements, Pentagon confirmations of escort operations, or shifts in Iranian naval activity.

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