Iran allows oil tankers to cross Strait of Hormuz, easing tensions

Iran has permitted two oil tankers to cross the Strait of Hormuz, a slight easing of tensions. The market for UK warship deployment by April 30 sits at 1.7% YES, down from 2% yesterday.

Market reaction

The UK warships market odds declined as Iran’s controlled passage of vessels pointed toward a softer stance. The market trades at $11,264 face value daily but remains thin, with only $233 in actual USDC changing hands. It takes just $783 to move the odds by 5 points, making it susceptible to swings from large orders.

In crude oil, expectations of prices reaching an all-time high by April 30 have dropped to 1.6% YES. The strait’s partial reopening could ease supply concerns. That market saw $100,828 in daily face value, with $2,513 in real USDC traded. The largest single movement was a one-point spike, suggesting limited volatility.

Why it matters

Iran letting tankers through is a potential de-escalation but not a resolution. Traders should treat this as a temporary adjustment rather than a definitive shift. At 1.7¢, a YES share pays $1 if the UK sends warships by April 30, a 58.8x return. The bet makes sense only if you expect rapid escalation in the coming days.

What to watch

Announcements from the UK Ministry of Defence or unexpected military actions by the IRGC. Either could move these odds quickly.

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