Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz, escalating conflict with US

Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation against the US, escalating the ongoing conflict. The market for Trump announcing the US blockade lifted by May 31 is at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.

The odds for a May 31 blockade lift dropped sharply as traders priced in skepticism about a quick resolution. The chance of a near-term lift by April 19 collapsed to 8% YES, down from 28% a day ago. The term structure shows a 70-point gap from April 19 to May 31, meaning traders expect any resolution to take weeks, not days.

The US-Iran ceasefire market is at 17.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday. Iran’s blockade action looks like a ceasefire breach, raising the probability that Trump declares it broken by April 21.

Total USDC volume across these markets hit $29,602. The largest single move was a 5-point drop at 12:19 PM. Order book depth is thin: $1,419 is enough to shift odds by 5 points on the May 31 market. That fragility means even modest trades can cause large swings.

Iran’s blockade is a direct escalation that narrows the path to diplomatic resolution. The tit-for-tat pattern increases risk and makes a quick blockade lift less likely, despite earlier hints at possible diplomatic progress. At 78¢, a YES share on the May 31 market pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade lift by then, a 1.28x return. That bet requires rapid de-escalation or an unexpected diplomatic breakthrough to pay off.

Watch for Trump’s statements, especially any indication of new sanctions or military movements. Pentagon briefings on operational status in Hormuz matter too; any shift in naval posture would be a clear market mover.

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