Iran conflict drives oil prices above $120 amid global fossil fuel talks

Nations are gathering in Colombia to discuss phasing out fossil fuels as the Iran war sends oil prices higher. Crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 is at 0.9% YES, down from 2% a week ago.

The Global Fossil Fuel Phase-Out Conference in Santa Marta brings together over 50 countries to negotiate timelines and equity in moving away from fossil fuels. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States has disrupted the Strait of Hormuz, pushing Brent crude prices above $120 per barrel. Traders are watching the all-time high market closely, though odds for crude oil hitting new highs by April 30 remain low.

## Market reaction

With just six days until April 30, the likelihood of crude oil surpassing its all-time high looks slim. The WTI hitting $160 in April market sits at 0.2% YES, unchanged over the last week. Traders are skeptical despite the current geopolitical situation. The ongoing US naval blockade and fragile ceasefire talks have not moved these odds, which points to a market consensus that a price surge to new highs is unlikely in the remaining days.

## Why it matters

Trading data shows $2,023 in actual USDC traded over the last 24 hours across these markets, with a face value over $271,280. The largest price move was a modest 1-point spike; even with that face value, the market hasn’t budged much. The cost to move the all-time high market by 5 percentage points is just $695, which means a sudden geopolitical development could cause sharp swings in thin liquidity.

## What to watch

For traders, the fossil fuel exit discussions cut two ways. Long-term, they point toward reduced fossil fuel demand, but in the short run, the Iran conflict overshadows these talks. At 0.9% YES, betting on oil exceeding its all-time high offers a 111x return. Justifying that position would require a significant escalation or supply disruption in the coming days.

Watch for OPEC+ statements or any shifts in US-Iran diplomatic tone. The April 28–29 conference outcomes matter, but immediate price impacts will likely depend on military developments in the Gulf region.

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