Iran conflict threatens over half of Middle East urea production

CRU reports that more than half of the Middle East’s urea production may be lost due to the Iran conflict. The Polymarket contract for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.

Market reaction

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly a third of global urea exports and significant oil volumes, is closed, crimping supply chains. Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 trades at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday, with actual USDC volume at $2,513/day. The cost to move the price 5 points is $695, meaning modest order sizes can shift the market.

Why it matters

Tanker traffic through the strait is down over 90%, and traders appear to expect prolonged disruptions. Yet the odds show clear skepticism about crude hitting the $120/barrel mark within the next week. The largest price move was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, consistent with thin, indecisive trading.

What to watch

Buying YES at 1¢ would pay 100x if crude does hit an all-time high, but that requires major geopolitical escalation within six days. The 1% price reflects how few traders expect that outcome. Watch for OPEC+ statements, US strategic petroleum reserve releases, further military escalation, or diplomatic moves from the Trump administration or Iranian leadership. Any of these could move the contract sharply.

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