Iran dismisses Trump’s bomb threat, peace deal by April 22 unlikely

Iran’s Deputy FM Saeed Khatibzadeh dismissed Trump’s bomb threat rhetoric as contradictory, suggesting stalled negotiations. The likelihood of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 is at 28.5% YES.

The market for a permanent peace deal by April 22 has ticked up from 12% a week ago but remains low with only 6 days left. The April 30 market sits at 45.5%, up from 17% a week ago, which suggests some traders expect developments after the April 22 deadline passes. The June 30 market trades at 72.5% YES, pricing in a two-in-three chance of a resolution over the longer timeframe.

Trading volume across all peace deal sub-markets is at $711,138 in USDC. Moving the price by 5 points in the April 22 market requires $16,312, which points to real liquidity in the book. The largest move was a 4-point spike at 12:18 AM, likely driven by a single large order.

Khatibzadeh’s rebuttal to Trump’s comments highlights the gap between the two sides. No concrete progress has been reported, making a permanent peace deal by April 22 increasingly unlikely. At 15¢, a YES share pays $1 if a deal is reached, a 6.67x return. That payout assumes a rapid diplomatic breakthrough that current rhetoric doesn’t support.

Watch for announcements from the White House or Iranian Foreign Ministry that could shift the diplomatic stance. Trump’s statements remain volatile catalysts, but without new mediation efforts or confirmed direct talks, prices are likely to stay flat.

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