Iran imposes tolls on Strait of Hormuz, UK warship transit odds rise

Iran’s move to impose tolls on the Strait of Hormuz has pushed odds for UK warship transit by April 30, 2026, to 10% YES on Polymarket, up from 6% a week ago.

The warships through the Strait of Hormuz market ticked up as Iran signaled it would use the IRGC to enforce toll collection. A UK response to protect freedom of navigation would directly increase the probability of warship deployment. The market trades $12,956 in face value daily, with $1,274 in actual USDC, and it takes $581 to move the price by 5 points.

The Strait of Hormuz traffic market sits at 58.0% YES for traffic normalizing by end of April, but a 9-point drop in recent trading shows traders pricing in further disruption risk.

The toll proposal could be more bark than bite if diplomatic channels open. Iran’s leverage with tolls could either pressure a resolution or backfire if it triggers military responses. At 10¢, a YES share in the UK warship market pays $1 if resolved, a potential 10x return. The bet turns on whether the UK treats the tolls as a red line worth a naval response.

Watch for UK Ministry of Defence statements or IRGC announcements of further enforcement measures. A shift in language from either side could move the market sharply.

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