Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, impacting global oil transit

Iran continues to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping, and the Polymarket contract for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 sits at 0.4% YES, virtually unchanged.

Market reaction

The sub-market for fewer than 10 ships transiting between April 13-19 shows minimal movement at 0.4% YES. Ship movements remain stalled under the closure.

The April 30 market, which asks whether 80 ships will transit on any single day by month-end, is at 26.5% YES, down from 51% yesterday. Traders are clearly skeptical about a quick resolution. The strait carries about 20% of global oil, and the ongoing conflict makes a return to normal traffic volumes uncertain.

Why it matters

The April 13-19 market has only $57 in actual USDC traded, meaning liquidity is extremely thin. It takes just $12 to shift the odds by 5 percentage points, so even small trades could cause sharp moves. The April 30 market is more liquid at $16,360 in real dollars traded daily, and it takes $797 to shift odds 5 points.

Iran’s continued closure and the drop in the April 30 market from 51% to 22.5% in a single day point to no progress in diplomatic negotiations. A YES share on the sub-10 transit market costs 0.4¢, making it a long-shot, high-payout bet given current geopolitical conditions.

What to watch

Official statements from CENTCOM or the IRGC regarding any changes to the blockade or transit protocols. Specifically, comments from Admiral Brad Cooper or new developments in nuclear talks could move these markets quickly.

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