Iran maintains hardline stance, reducing chances of US-Iran ceasefire by April 21

Iran’s National Security Council declared an uncompromising stance on negotiations, and the odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 21 sit at 17% YES.

The ceasefire market for April 21 is flat at 8% YES, showing low confidence in an imminent agreement. The April 22 market is at 24.5% YES, up from 12% a week ago. The April 30 market has jumped to 44.5% YES, driven by speculation about a mid-term diplomatic breakthrough.

Daily face value across ceasefire markets is $2.5M, with $699K in actual USDC traded. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop in the April 30 market, a sign of skepticism about near-term resolutions. Order book depth varies: the April 22 market requires $16,401 to move 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.

Iran’s firm rhetoric and recent escalations, including Israeli strikes, reduce the probability of a ceasefire. The term structure suggests traders are betting on a potential diplomatic shift beyond April, with higher odds extending into May and June. A YES share for the April 21 ceasefire pays $1 at 17¢, a 12.5x return. Recent developments make this a long shot without significant diplomatic movement.

Watch for statements from Trump, CENTCOM, or intermediary nations like Oman. Any indication of resumed talks or softened rhetoric could shift these markets fast.

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