Iran maintains oil exports despite US blockade of Strait of Hormuz

Iran continues to export oil despite the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the market on whether Trump will announce a lifting of the blockade by May 31 down to 57.5% YES, a sharp drop from 72% just a day ago.

## Market reaction

The market on whether Trump will agree to Iranian oil sanction relief in April is also under pressure. Iran’s continued exports reduce the urgency for Trump to offer concessions, and the odds are likely to stay low as Iran uses alternative revenue channels to work around the blockade. This strengthens Iran’s bargaining position ahead of any negotiations.

The odds of crude oil prices hitting an all-time high by April 30 have fallen to 0.4% YES. Iran’s ability to keep exporting despite the blockade has eased supply fears, making a price spike unlikely. That market saw just $2,513 in actual USDC traded over the past day.

## Why it matters

The Hormuz blockade market is trading $95,253 in actual USDC daily and remains reasonably liquid, with $8,975 required to move odds by 5 points, a sign of institutional interest. The crude oil market, by contrast, has a thin $695 order book depth, leaving it exposed to volatility from single large trades, though interest appears low.

## What to watch

Iran’s capacity to maintain oil exports weakens the case for immediate U.S. policy changes. At 57.5%, a YES share on the Hormuz blockade market pays $1 if resolved, a 1.74x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe in a significant shift in U.S. strategy within the next 37 days.

Watch for new diplomatic engagements or changes in U.S. military posture. Statements from White House officials or shifts in naval activity near the strait would be the most direct signals of Trump’s next move.

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