Iran oil shipments plunge amid tightening US blockade of Strait of Hormuz

Iran’s oil shipments have dropped sharply as a tightening US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz squeezes Tehran’s revenue. Crude oil prices exceeding the all-time high by April 30 are priced at 0.4% YES, down from 2% a week ago.

Market reaction

The blockade’s impact shows across several markets. The likelihood of WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April sits at 0.2% YES. This market saw a brief uptick earlier but has settled back to where it was a week ago. The possibility of Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by the end of April remains grim, with no significant trading volume to suggest a turnaround.

Why it matters

Iran has laden tankers stranded and unable to navigate past the blockade, and traders are skeptical of any quick resolution. The WTI $160 market is thin: $506 in actual USDC trading against a $54,256/day face value. It only takes $1,632 to move the price five points, so any significant news could cause sharp swings. The crude oil all-time high market is slightly more active at $2,513 actual USDC traded daily, but still shows bearish sentiment.

The blockade is a direct constraint on global oil supply with the potential to push prices higher. Traders are pricing in continued turmoil, which explains the steep drop in positive odds for a price surge. A YES share at 0.4¢ pays $1 if crude hits its all-time high by April 30, a bet on an extraordinary outcome given current pricing.

What to watch

Any announcements from Iranian or US government officials on military or diplomatic shifts. A clear signal from OPEC+ or unexpected oil market interventions could change the current trajectory.

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