Iran-Pakistan talks end without progress, US-Iran meeting unlikely by April 26

Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi’s talks with Pakistani officials ended without progress. The probability of a US-Iran meeting by April 26 dropped to 10% YES.

Market reaction

Odds for a diplomatic meeting on April 26 fell from 29% to 10% yesterday as traders priced in the lack of results from Islamabad. The market for June 30 ticked up slightly to 7% YES for no qualifying meeting occurring by that date, suggesting traders expect further delays.

Why it matters

The next meeting location market holds at 7% YES for no meeting by June 30. No new venue has been confirmed, and the Islamabad talks produced nothing that would change that.

Trading volume is $27,334 USDC, with only $141 in order book depth needed to move prices 5 points. The market is thin enough that relatively small trades can cause significant price swings.

What to watch

A YES share for an April 26 meeting at 10¢ pays 10x if it resolves YES, but current signals point toward delays. The things that would change this: US delegation movements, statements from Iranian officials, or announcements from the White House or Pakistan confirming new dates or venues.

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