Iran refuses to restore Strait of Hormuz normalcy amid peace deal doubts

The Iranian Parliament Vice President refused to restore normalcy in the Strait of Hormuz, and the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30 dropped to 2.6% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago.

The refusal comes as the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire faces its hardest test. The April 30 market reflects a steep decline, with traders clearly skeptical of a near-term resolution. The May 31 contract trades at 30.5% YES, down from 38% in the last 24 hours. The 28-point gap between April 30 and May 31 indicates traders expect any diplomatic breakthrough to come after April.

The June 30 market at 46.5% YES is the most optimistic contract, but it has also fallen from 57% yesterday. Combined daily volume across these markets is $854,504 in USDC, with $27,666 required to move the April 30 price 5 points. The largest move was a 6-point spike at 11:14 AM, possibly driven by hopes of a diplomatic shift that quickly faded.

Iran’s refusal on the Strait of Hormuz shows how wide the gap between the two sides remains. Macron’s comments suggest European patience is wearing thin, narrowing the diplomatic path further. Traders buying YES on a peace deal by April 30 would get a 38.5x return at 2.6¢, but the odds reflect bleak prospects without a major shift.

Watch for the outcome of the Islamabad talks involving US Vice President JD Vance and any changes in rhetoric from Iran or Trump. A surprise breakthrough or collapse in negotiations could move these markets sharply.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.