Iran refuses US talks under pressure, nuclear deal deadlock persists

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian told Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz Sharif that Tehran will not negotiate with the US under pressure. The market for Iran agreeing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026, dropped to 1.8% YES, down from 6% a day ago.

Pezeshkian’s comments drove the April 30 contract down sharply. The December 31, 2026, market holds at 40% YES, while the June 30, 2026, contract sits at 26.5% YES. The gap between the near-term and later contracts suggests traders expect no quick resolution but haven’t ruled out a deal over a longer timeline.

Trading volume on the April 30 contract is $10,723 in daily USDC volume, with $9,564 needed to move the odds by 5 points, a thin market where a single large trade can shift prices meaningfully. The largest move was a 1-point spike at 11:14 AM, from 5% to 6%.

Iran’s refusal to negotiate under current conditions points to continued deadlock on nuclear talks. At 2¢, a YES share pays 50x, but resolution by April 2026 would require a significant change in either US or Iranian negotiating posture.

Key variables: any change in US pressure tactics, new mediation from Pakistan or other regional actors, and whether Tehran signals willingness to engage on different terms. The spread between the April and December contracts will narrow or widen as these factors develop.

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