Iran restricts Strait of Hormuz transit to 12 vessels in 24 hours

NBC News reports only 12 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours under strict Iranian controls. The market for fewer than 10 ships transiting the strait between April 13-19 sits at 0.1% YES.

Market reaction

The market’s odds haven’t moved significantly. Most of the 12 vessels used the Iranian-approved route off Bandar Abbas, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) enforcing these measures. The fewer-than-10-ships market remains at 0.1% YES, unchanged from the previous day and down from 12% a week ago. The April 19 resolution has 364 days left, so any significant change could shift the odds.

Why it matters

Volume in this market is negligible, with just $1 in USDC traded daily. It takes only $11 to move the price by 5 percentage points, showing how thinly traded this contract is. A single trader with modest capital could dramatically shift the price. The largest price move in the last 24 hours was a non-event, suggesting traders are either sidelined or unaware.

The 12-vessel count reflects the ongoing standoff between the US and Iran. Roughly 20% of global oil passes through the strait, but the current odds reflect a belief that fewer than 10 ships is a stretch. Buying YES at 0.1¢ offers a theoretical payout of $1, a 999x return. For that to materialize, there would need to be a further IRGC clampdown or a significant escalation in tensions.

What to watch

Keep an eye on IRGC enforcement actions and any statements from CENTCOM or President Trump indicating a shift in naval posture. Either could cause volatility in this market.

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