Iran, US issue conflicting statements on Strait of Hormuz

Iran and the US issued contradictory statements about the Strait of Hormuz, pushing the odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 down to 19.5% YES, a sharp drop from 40% yesterday.

The April 22 peace deal market expires in just 4 days, and traders are pricing in low confidence in a quick resolution. The odds for a peace deal by April 30 also fell to 39.5% YES from 61% yesterday. The largest single drop was 5 points at 5:56 PM.

The term structure shows traders expect something to happen between April 30 and May 31: odds jump from 39.5% to 58% YES across that window. Moving the April 22 market 5 points requires $9,366, making it relatively resistant to small trades.

Daily USDC trading volume is $1,644,301, which shows real interest but also means a few large trades can move odds noticeably. The $9,366 depth requirement for a 5-point shift on the April 22 contract suggests genuine liquidity rather than whale-driven pricing. At these levels, some of the movement likely reflects temporary headline reactions rather than a durable reassessment of diplomatic prospects. At 19.5¢, a YES share for an April 22 peace deal pays $1 if it resolves, a 5.13x return. That bet only makes sense if you believe a major diplomatic breakthrough will happen in the next four days.

Watch for Trump’s public statements and Iranian responses, particularly via IRNA or Truth Social. Any shift in language from either side could move the odds sharply before the April 22 deadline.

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