Iranian ships defy US blockade, navigate Strait of Hormuz

Iranian ships continue to navigate the Strait of Hormuz despite a US blockade. Odds that Trump will announce lifting the blockade by May 31 are at 56% YES, down from 72% yesterday.

Market reaction

The market shows skepticism about a quick resolution. Seventeen ships recently traversed the strait, calling enforcement into question. This has pressured the Trump blockade announcement market, which is down from 90% a week ago. Daily volume is at $95,253 in USDC, and it takes nearly $9,000 to move the odds 5 points, indicating strong resistance levels on both sides.

Why it matters

The shipping transit market sits at 1% YES for 80 ships transiting by April 30, down sharply from 51% a week ago. Maritime traffic through the strait has not recovered, and the gap between 17 actual transits and the 80-ship threshold shows how far conditions are from normal flow.

What to watch

At 56¢ for a YES share, a positive outcome by May 31 would pay 1.78x. To justify that price, you’d need confidence that diplomatic talks will produce a breakthrough soon. Watch for statements from Trump or Iranian officials on ceasefire negotiations or naval movements, either of which could move these odds fast.

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