Iranian tankers redirected as US blockade tightens in Strait of Hormuz

Iranian tankers are feeling the sting of a US naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, with 37 vessels redirected since the blockade began. The market for Iran successfully targeting ships by April 30 now sits at 68.3% YES, up from 19% just 24 hours ago.

The odds surge indicates traders are betting on more aggressive Iranian tactics following the US blockade. Iran’s seizure of two Israel-linked vessels has already raised tensions. Sparse traffic through Hormuz suggests the blockade is working. The market for US escorts through Hormuz by April 30 has also moved, now at just 1.9% YES, down from 7% yesterday.

The Iran targeting market saw $1,280 in daily volume, with a notable 10-point spike at 11:40 AM taking the odds from 30% to 40%. Only $101 is needed to move the market five points, meaning small orders can swing prices significantly.

This blockade is a real escalation with direct economic consequences. Traders are pricing in the risk of further Iranian actions, including possible direct naval clashes. At 68¢, a YES share offers upside, but betting on further escalation carries obvious risk given how quickly conditions are shifting.

Watch for announcements from the IRGC or US Navy movements that could signal a shift in strategy. Either could change the calculus on whether the blockade escalates into a broader conflict.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.