Iran’s Ghalibaf resigns from negotiating team, impacting peace deal prospects

Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf has resigned from the negotiating team, per Israel’s N12 News. The permanent US-Iran peace deal by April 30 market is at 9% YES, down from 18% yesterday.

Market reaction

Ghalibaf’s resignation shifts the balance toward hardliners in Iran’s diplomacy. The April 30 peace deal market has dropped to 9% YES. Traders are reading the internal shakeup as a barrier to reaching a deal by the deadline.

Longer-dated peace deal contracts also fell. May 31 and June 30 are at 35.5% and 57.5% YES. The May 31 contract dropped from 52% over the past 24 hours. The term structure shows traders expect no near-term catalyst: the biggest gap is between April 30 and May 31, a 26-point jump over 31 days.

The market on Iran surrendering its enriched uranium tells a similar story. Odds of an agreement by April 30 are at 5.9% YES, reflecting skepticism about Iranian concessions during internal turmoil. The June 30 contract sits at 22.5% YES.

Why it matters

Combined 24-hour volume is $423,360 for peace deals and $99,874 for uranium surrender. It takes $28,110 to move the peace deal market 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.

Ghalibaf’s exit suggests internal discord within Iran is deepening, making an agreement less likely in the near term. At 9¢, a YES share on a peace deal pays $1 if resolved, a 11x return. That bet requires believing a diplomatic breakthrough is imminent despite the loss of a key negotiator.

What to watch

Any announcements from the White House or Iranian leadership on resuming talks. JD Vance’s expected attendance at a diplomatic meeting or a shift in operational language from CENTCOM could move these markets.

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