## Market Snapshot
Trump’s Hormuz Blockade Announcement market is currently priced at 26% YES, down from 28% in the last 24 hours and 60% a week ago. This reflects a declining probability of the US blockade being lifted by May 31, 2026.
## Key Takeaways
– The IRGC’s confirmation of no commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz suggests continued high tension and blockade enforcement. – Market pricing suggests a decrease in the likelihood of Donald Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by the end of May. – The Bab el-Mandeb Strait and Kharg Island markets appear unaffected by this development, indicating their focus remains elsewhere.
## Article Body
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has confirmed that no commercial vessels or oil tankers have passed through the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours, according to Tasnim News. This statement reinforces the ongoing dual blockade situation, where Iran has restricted passage since late February, and the US Navy has maintained a blockade of Iranian ports since April 13. The continued closure highlights the heightened escalation in the region following the US-Israel air war against Iran, which began with strikes that led to the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This has led to retaliatory actions by Iran, including missile and drone attacks on US bases and allies, further complicating the geopolitical landscape.
## Market Interpretation
The IRGC’s confirmation of the blockade is consistent with NO outcome support in the market regarding Trump’s announcement of lifting the US blockade by May 31. The lack of commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz appears to solidify the current status quo, reinforcing the perception of an ongoing crisis. The impact of this development on the market is considered moderate, given the existing tensions and the recent decline in market pricing for a potential blockade lift.
## What to Watch
Key factors to monitor include any shifts in US-Iran negotiations or changes in military posture by both nations that could alter the current blockade status. The involvement of international mediators or new diplomatic initiatives could also impact market perceptions. Additionally, statements from Donald Trump or CENTCOM regarding the blockade’s status will be critical in influencing market dynamics as the May 31 deadline approaches.
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