Is SanDisk (SNDK) Stock a Buy After Its 30% Pullback From the Highs?

TLDR

• SNDK is up 574% year-to-date but has pulled back more than 30% from its June 22 peak of $2,354.39, opening Thursday at $1,599.27
• Q3 revenue nearly doubled to $5.95 billion, with non-GAAP gross margin hitting 78.4% and adjusted EPS of $23.41 — beating estimates by $9.24
• Q4 guidance calls for revenue of $7.75B–$8.25B and EPS of $30–$33, with gross margins guided at 79%–81%
• Analyst price targets range from $1,200 (Goldman Sachs) to $3,250 (Susquehanna), with a consensus of $1,820.90 and a “Moderate Buy” rating
• Bears point to potential oversupply risks, slowing hyperscaler capex growth, and rising competition from Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron

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SanDisk (SNDK) has been the standout story of 2026. The stock surged 726% in the first half of the year — more than double the S&P 500’s second-best performer, Micron, which rose 266%.

Sandisk Corporation, SNDK

SNDK opened Thursday at $1,599.27, down sharply from its 52-week high of $2,354.39 hit on June 22. That’s a pullback of more than 30% in roughly a month.

The rally was driven by a perfect storm: soaring AI data center demand, constrained NAND supply following 2023 production cuts, and strong adoption of SanDisk’s BiCS8 storage chips. Data center revenue jumped 233% sequentially in Q3 alone.

The BiCS8 chips pack 15%–19% more data into a smaller footprint than competing solutions. They also use roughly 13% less power — a real selling point for power-hungry AI data centers.

Q3 numbers backed up the hype. Revenue nearly doubled to $5.95 billion, non-GAAP gross margin expanded from 51.1% to 78.4%, and adjusted EPS came in at $23.41 — smashing the $14.17 consensus estimate by $9.24.

SanDisk also generated around $3 billion in free cash flow in the quarter, holds a debt-free balance sheet, and has authorized a $6 billion buyback.

For Q4, the company guided revenue of $7.75B–$8.25B — a 30%–39% sequential jump — and EPS of $30–$33. Non-GAAP gross margins are expected to land between 79% and 81%.

What Wall Street Is Saying

Analyst opinion is overwhelmingly positive, though targets vary widely. Bernstein raised its target to $3,000 from $1,700 with an Outperform rating, pointing to long-term supply agreements it says provide meaningful downside protection. The firm estimates pricing floors of roughly $0.29 per gigabyte across contracts spanning three to five years.

Susquehanna is the most bullish on the Street, lifting its target to $3,250 with a Buy rating. It sees NAND pricing rising 75%–100% based on its industry checks.

Bank of America’s Wamsi Mohan raised his target to $2,500 from $2,100, expecting strong pricing conditions to hold through mid-2027.

Morgan Stanley kept its Outperform rating and raised its target to $1,750, citing a memory shortage with “no quick fix” given how long it takes to build new manufacturing clean rooms.

Goldman Sachs sits at the more cautious end, maintaining a Buy with a $1,200 target. The consensus across 26 analysts sits at $1,820.90, with 18 Buy ratings, 2 Strong Buys, and 6 Holds.

Key Risks Ahead

Bears have a few credible arguments. Historically, semiconductor shortages lead to double-ordering, and when capacity catches up, prices can fall fast.

Hyperscaler capex is also set to slow. UBS estimates spending grows 76% this year but only 25% next year and 6% in 2028. That deceleration matters for a stock priced for hypergrowth.

Competition is building. Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, and Chinese manufacturers are all investing in new capacity. SK Hynix’s recent Nasdaq listing could also pull capital away from SNDK.

On the insider side, EVP Alper Ilkbahar sold 2,000 shares in June at $1,756.58, and insider Bernard Shek sold 600 shares in July at $2,088. Insiders have sold $10.1 million worth of stock over the last three months.

SNDK’s next earnings report is August 5, with an Investor Day scheduled for August 13.