TLDR
- SoFi reports Q2 earnings Wednesday before market open; analysts expect EPS of $0.11 and revenue of $1.13B
- Stock is down ~38% year to date, trading at $16.88, closer to its 52-week low than its high
- Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance is ~30% for Q2, below the long-term 38% target
- Record Q1 loan originations of $12.18B (up 68% YoY) set a high bar heading into the print
- Wall Street is split: 7 buys, 12 holds, 4 sells, with a consensus price target of $20.63
SoFi Technologies (SOFI) heads into Wednesday’s Q2 earnings report in a tough spot. The stock is down nearly 38% year to date, trading around $16.88 — far closer to its 52-week low of $14.92 than its high of $32.73.
Wall Street expects EPS of $0.11, up 37.5% year over year, on revenue of $1.13B — a 31.7% jump from the same period last year. That said, it would still be a slight step back from Q1, when SoFi posted EPS of $0.12 and revenue of $1.10B.
The Q1 revenue figure beat estimates by $50M, and the company added 1.1 million new members during the quarter. Investors will want to see that momentum carry through.
Of the 23 analysts covering SOFI, 7 rate it a buy, 12 a hold, and 4 a sell. The consensus price target sits at $20.63, implying around 22% upside from current levels.
Seeking Alpha analysts are more optimistic, rating the stock a Strong Buy. Analyst Krzysztof Bogdanski put a fair value of $22–$26 on the stock, pointing to strong product-per-member growth and fee diversification.
In contrast, Seeking Alpha’s Quant Rating has SOFI at Sell, and Truist rates it Hold with a price target of $18.
Truist analyst Matthew Coad flagged the second half of 2026 as a potential headwind. He pointed to decelerating personal loan originations industry-wide and declining private credit demand for longer-duration consumer loans as risks to SoFi’s origination growth and gain-on-sale rate.
Margins in Focus
The biggest number to watch may not be revenue. Adjusted EBITDA margin guidance for Q2 is around 30%, compared to 31.3% in Q1. SoFi’s long-term target is approximately 38%, so the gap between where they are and where they want to be remains wide.
Any upside surprise on margins could be a catalyst for the beaten-down stock. Any miss would likely add pressure.
CFO Chris Lapointe guided for adjusted net income margin of 12%–13% for Q2, translating to roughly $0.10–$0.11 in EPS — right in line with consensus.
Loan Originations and Member Engagement
SoFi posted record loan originations of $12.18B in Q1, up 68% year over year. That’s a high bar to clear heading into Q2.
The company also recently launched Composer by SoFi, an AI-powered investing platform that lets users build and execute investment strategies using plain language.
Member cross-sell data will also be closely watched. In Q1, 43% of new products were taken up by existing members — a key metric for the company’s long-term economics.
Over the last two years, SoFi has beaten EPS estimates 63% of the time and revenue estimates 100% of the time. Over the past three months, EPS estimates have seen no upward revisions and seven downward, while revenue estimates saw two up and 14 down.
SoFi trades at a forward P/E of 27 with projected EPS growth of 62%.
Stop guessing and start investing with confidence. KnockoutStocks gives you the AI insights, market intelligence, and stock research you need to spot opportunities, cut through the noise, and make smarter investment decisions — all in one powerful platform.
Sign up today and get 50% OFF full access to our premium stock picks.
Simply use coupon code SPECIAL50 at checkout to claim your exclusive discount.
Be the first to comment