Is SpaceX (SPCX) Stock a Buy Ahead of Earnings Tuesday?

TLDR

• SpaceX (SPCX) reports Q3 earnings after the close Tuesday, with the stock down nearly 15% over the past eight sessions and trading near $146.
• Wall Street expects revenue of about $12.89 billion, up roughly 65% from a year ago, and earnings of 14 cents a share.
• Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas rates the stock Overweight with a $300 price target and points to Starship Flight 15 as a catalyst.
• SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital expenditure last quarter, including $15.83 billion on AI infrastructure.
• SpaceX makes up 25.44% of the Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX), so the report matters for that fund too.

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SpaceX (SPCX) stock trades near $146 ahead of its third-quarter earnings report after Tuesday’s close. The stock has dropped nearly 15% over the past eight trading sessions. That has taken some shine off its recent rally.

Space Exploration Technologies Corp., SPCX

Wall Street expects revenue of $12.89 billion, according to TipRanks. That would be up about 65% from a year earlier. Consensus earnings are 14 cents a share, compared with a nine-cent loss in the prior quarter.

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is a little more optimistic. He forecasts revenue of $13 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $6.9 billion and earnings of 19 cents a share. He also expects 14.3 million consumer Starlink subscribers, each paying an average of $63.60 a month.

What the Second Quarter Showed

In the second quarter, connectivity revenue rose 66% to $4.29 billion. AI revenue jumped about 247% to $2.56 billion. Total revenue came in at $7.8 billion.

Even so, the company posted an operating loss of $143 million. Spending was the main reason. Capital expenditure hit $18.4 billion, and $15.83 billion of that went to AI infrastructure, according to SEC filings.

Starlink’s direct-to-cell push is another thing to watch. About 650 satellites already support the service, and regulators have approved 15,000 more. Motley Fool analyst Rich Smith noted on Oct. 18 that how much this adds to revenue and earnings “remains to be seen.”

The spending isn’t likely to slow soon. Starship development, new satellites and a roughly $8 billion wireless spectrum deal could keep costs high. Investors will look at cash generation and spending guidance as closely as the sales number.

Wall Street’s View

Jonas wrote that “complacency is opportunity.” He sees the rest of the year as an “upside-skewed catalyst path.” He starts with Starship Flight 15 and a possible ship catch in the first half of November.

At $146 a share, his math assigns $127 to space and connectivity. That leaves just $19 for AI. He says that implies investors are paying only about twice estimated 2028 sales for the computing unit.

Concerns about the computing buildout remain. They include electricity supply, construction timelines and financing needs. Jonas projects debt issuance of $60 billion in 2027, $80 billion in 2028 and $90 billion in 2029.

Jonas holds an Overweight rating and a $300 price target. That is more than double the current price. Other analysts are also mostly positive.

Of 35 analysts covering SPCX, 28 rate it a buy, five say hold and two say sell. That adds up to a Moderate Buy consensus. The average 12-month target is $217.50, or about 49% above current levels.

The Global X Space Tech ETF (ORBX) held 25.44% of its assets in SpaceX as of Oct. 16. That equals about $8.99 million of its $35.34 million portfolio. Rocket Lab makes up 8.75% and AST SpaceMobile 7.66%.

Based on that weighting, a 10% SpaceX rally would add roughly 2.54 percentage points to ORBX if all else stayed flat. That ignores fees and tracking effects.

The next update arrives Tuesday after the bell. Investors will watch Starship Flight 15 plans, computing capacity and spending guidance. Flight 15 and a possible ship catch are targeted for the first half of November.