Israel halts plan for regime change in Iran, de-escalates efforts

Israel’s plan to trigger regime change in Iran was stopped at the last minute, according to Ynet. Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 is at 6.5% YES, up slightly from 6% yesterday.

The halted plans have kept several related markets subdued. The Reza Pahlavi entry by June 30 sits at 6.5% YES. The December 31 market is higher at 16.5% YES, suggesting bettors see any change as more likely later in the year. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 is at 8.5% YES, barely moved from 8% yesterday.

The regime fall market is the most liquid of the three, with $35,587 in actual USDC traded daily. It takes $16,830 to shift its odds by 5 points, which indicates solid depth. The Reza Pahlavi markets trade with less volume, $736 and $3,347 in actual USDC for June and December respectively, and their order books are thinner, requiring only $7,632 and $6,203 to move them 5 points.

The reporting points to a de-escalation from active regime-change efforts toward military capability degradation. Previous Israeli military raids in Iran corresponded with decreased odds in these markets. At 8.5¢, a YES share on regime fall pays $1 if it resolves by June 30, a 11.8x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect a major internal shake-up soon.

Watch for shifts in US or Israeli military operations and Iranian internal politics, particularly moves by Mojtaba Khamenei or the IRGC. These could move market odds quickly.

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