Israeli strikes kill dozens in Lebanon hours before ceasefire

Israeli strikes in Lebanon killed dozens just hours before a ceasefire was set to begin. The Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026 market is at 93.7% YES, up from 45% a week ago.

The violence has traders re-evaluating whether a ceasefire will hold. The June 30 market is at 96.6% YES, showing stronger expectations for a longer-term resolution, though the new strikes could challenge that. The narrow gap between April and June pricing suggests uncertainty is concentrated in the immediate term rather than the medium term.

In the Israel military action in Greater Beirut market, odds for April 1 sit at 100% YES. Traders treat continued military action in Beirut as a given, even with the ceasefire approaching. This market has seen no price movement, indicating entrenched expectations of conflict.

Volume data shows $1,041,878 in daily USDC trading across the ceasefire markets, enough to move prices by five points. The largest move was a 13-point spike, suggesting traders are reacting quickly to news but still betting on diplomacy over the medium term. The Greater Beirut market shows no volume, consistent with its 100% pricing.

The strikes cast doubt on whether a ceasefire is viable. The source is tier 2, indicating regional reliability but not global confirmation. At 94¢, a YES share pays $1 if a ceasefire holds, a modest return that prices in high confidence in diplomacy. Military action in Beirut at 100% YES offers no payout, with the market fully priced for ongoing conflict.

Watch for statements from Netanyahu or the IDF confirming or denying ceasefire intentions. A shift in tone from either party could move these markets quickly.

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