James Comey indicted again over Instagram post allegedly threatening Trump

James Comey, former FBI Director, has been indicted again over an Instagram post that allegedly threatened Donald Trump, and the Polymarket odds of his arrest by May 15 are at 87% YES.

Market reaction

The April 29 market sits at 15.0% chance of arrest. The May 15 market is at 87%, a large gap that suggests traders expect a specific development between those two dates, roughly 16 days out.

Trading volume hit $52,511 in USDC over the last 24 hours. The largest single price move was a 16-point drop at 10:05 PM, likely from a large sell order. Order book depth on the April 29 market requires $5,410 to move the price 5 points, which indicates moderate liquidity.

Why it matters

The term structure between the two markets is the key signal here. A 19.5% chance by April 29 jumping to 87% by May 15 means traders are pricing in a specific catalyst (a court ruling, arrest warrant, or similar legal action) in early-to-mid May. Buying YES at 87¢ offers a 1.15x return, which means strong conviction among buyers that the arrest happens.

What to watch

Statements from Lindsey Halligan and Todd Blanche, along with any new court filings, could shift these odds quickly in either direction.

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