Joerg Hiller
Jun 30, 2026 00:21
On Monday, Israel’s Knesset voted down a bill to bar International Red Cross visits to Palestinian detainees, 36–42, after a court said the ban lacked legal basis.
Knesset Blocks Red Cross Prison-Visit Ban as Polymarket Boosts Gadi Eizenkot to 41.35% to Be Israel’s Next PM
Israel’s Knesset voted down a proposed bill that would have barred International Red Cross representatives from visiting Palestinian detainees, keeping a politically sensitive issue in the spotlight. On Polymarket, the contract “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” showed Gadi Eizenkot rising to 41.35%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the leading candidate at 41.35% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election.
- Traders nudged Eizenkot higher after a Knesset vote rejected a bill targeting Red Cross prison visits, highlighting coalition tensions and public security debates.
- The market resolves by 2026-12-31, with Eizenkot up 2.25 percentage points versus the prior snapshot.
Israel’s Knesset rejected a proposed bill that would have prevented representatives of the International Red Cross from visiting Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli detention centers. The measure failed after its first reading on Monday, drawing 36 votes in favor and 42 against, and was removed from the agenda. The proposal also sought to bar the sharing of information about detainees without approval from the national security minister or the defense minister, citing security risks from outside access to prisons. National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir backed the legislation and criticized opponents, linking the issue to the lack of Red Cross visits to Israelis taken hostage by Hamas on October 7. The bill followed a June 3 High Court of Justice ruling that Israel’s ban on Red Cross visits was unlawful, saying the state had not presented a coherent legal basis for the restriction.
Polymarket Data: $22.5M Volume as Eizenkot Leads at 41.35% vs Netanyahu 35.5% into the 2026-12-31 Resolve
Polymarket shows $22,516,117 in volume on the multi-outcome market for Israel’s next prime minister, with Gadi Eizenkot leading at 41.35% Yes / 58.65% No. Benjamin Netanyahu is next at 35.5% Yes / 64.5% No, while Naftali Bennett trades at 12.5% Yes / 87.5% No. Farther down the board, Avigdor Lieberman is priced at 3.6% Yes / 96.4% No and Itamar Ben Gvir at 1.15% Yes / 98.85% No, indicating the bulk of pricing is concentrated in the top two names.
Watch whether pricing continues to concentrate around the top two candidates or broadens across alternatives, alongside any further shifts in the implied odds into the 2026-12-31 resolution window.
Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Tracking
Beyond the Israel leadership race, traders are also leaning into cross-border risk and regional diplomacy on Polymarket, with 81.1% “No” on “Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?” alongside $736,330 in volume. The contract has ticked 1.2 percentage points higher, underscoring how participants are hedging political outcomes against near-term geopolitical flashpoints across the Levant.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.0 |
| 7d | +2.0 |
By the Numbers
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 41.4% | 58.6% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3.6% | 96.4% |
+14 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
Sources
Image source: Shutterstock
Be the first to comment