Good Day… And a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday to one and all! A short week for writing for me, but that’s Ok, the previous week had a Friday message! My beloved Cardinals blew 3 straight games in San Fran and come home limping to play the White Sox… The manager is to blame for yesterday’s loss… I’ll say no more… And my beloved Mizzou Tigers take on KU tomorrow night, this game scares me, let’s hope I’m all wrong about that! Johnny Rivers greets me this morning with his song; Baby I Need Your Lovin’…
Well, that was quite the long pfennig yesterday, eh? You see, I’m currently on steroids to get my system all regulated again and Those Steroids keep me awake at night. So, instead of just lying there, I got up and began to write what was on my mind… And voila’ a very long Pfennig… No add today, I think I’ll included them every other day, going forward.
I told you yesterday that the dollar was in trouble… And yesterday, after falling to 1,186 in the BBDXY Index, it remained there the rest of the day. The futures markets has lowered their bets on a Rate Hike this month… Last week, the bets were 68% on a rate hike… But now, the bets have fallen to 58%… Maybe, they’ve been reading the Pfennig, where I explained that a rate hike is NOT guaranteed in Sept…Nah… these guys think they are way too smart to be filling their heads with Chuckisms…
Gold/Silver had good days yesterday, after seeing their levels reduced the previous day, they came back strong yesterday… Gold gained $46 to close at $4,402… And Silver gained $1.63 to close at $67.42… One day up, the next down they see short selling… UGH!
The price of Oil continues to rise, and yesterday Oil closed at $97.06… Almost $100 again.. But didn’t I tell you a month ago after all the rhetoric was around a Pease Agreement and the price of Oil dropped, that the drop wouldn’t stay down too long… And here we are once again knocking on the door to $100.. And remember, that’s the Global refinery price, long before it gets changed to gas, diesel and Jet Fuel, where all the fun begins, and the final price you pay at the pump is ready for you to consume…
And the 10-year got a boost from Stanley Druckenmiller’s Wall Street Journal Op-Ed titled, “Let The Bond Markets Speak”… the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.85% and that’s where it stayed to the end of the day… He was referring to U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent announcement that he was going to double down on bond buying…
In the overnight markets last night… Well, not so fast there Tim… The dollar’s selling ended overnight for a bit, and the BBDXY regained 3 index points to 1,189… I didn’t see that the world had come to a peace agreement and there would be no mor wars, so that’s not what moved the dollar higher… In my mind, it must have been the PPT doing some buying to keep the dollar from falling further…
The STPs are out and about today, after seeing that their work on getting the short timers out of Gold/ Silver failed once again yesterday, they decided to get right back at the job today. Gold is down $27 to start the day, and Silver is down $1.53… UGH! One day up, the next day down trading really gives me a rash…
The price of Oil slipped a bit overnight and trades this morning with a $96 handle… progress in the Strait is nonexistent, so these blips downward in Oil are just that… Blips… Nothing infrastructure related, so use the blip as your opportunity to buy cheaper… I’m just saying
And the 10-year Treasury is on a march to 5% and Bessent’s bond buying isn’t going to stop the bond boys from their mission… The 10-year starts today at 4.88%
I think I wrote about everything under the moon and stars yesterday, so there’s nothing more to add…
And do you know what’s fueling inflation? What have I aways taught you? That inflation comes from an expansion of Money Supply… And what’s the U.S.’s money supply situation right now? Well, according to my figures, since this data isn’t published any longer because the Gov’t wants to be able to lie to you about inflation… OK, according to my figures, Money Supply is running at an 8% rate… That’s a very high rate and unless Fed/Cabal/ Cartel head honcho, Kevin Warsh is serious about fighting inflation… he needs to lasso Money Supply and bring it down… Rate hikes , Schmate Hikes… Money Supply is the key Mr. Warsh… I’m sure that somewhere along your collegiate journey, you studied that, but have forgotten about it…
I say Rate Hike, Schmate Hikes, because unless Warsh is willing to bring the U.S. economy to its breaking point and beyond, he would look to hike rates double the rate of inflation… John Williams at Shadow Stats.com says real inflation Is 4% or more, so if Warsh hike rates 8.5% he could hang his hat on the same peg as Paul Volker once did…
It’s interesting, I read where John Willams believes that inflation is coming down right now… Now I hadn’t heard that one, but now, I need to research it and see where he’s coming from with that statement… inflation may be coming down, but prices sure aren’t!
The Petrol Currencies are having a really good time watching the price of Oil rising… Shoot Rudy, even the Russian ruble has moved in the right direction these days… Sterling, krone, reals, and even pesos are all loving this move higher in Oil… And these currencies are from their respective country and the good thing is that they all mine Oil, and refine it… Refineries are the key, and a country like Brazil has to take in refined Oil because they don’t have enough refineries…
The euro hit 1.1630 yesterday and then stopped rising… The Bundesbank doesn’t like the euro too strong, and I’m sure they manipulated the currency to keep the euro in check… But, if the dollar continues to lose ground, then the Bundesbank will have to suck it up and take it! Ahhh, remembering a real Bundesbank President, Hans Tietmeyer… Those were the days, when I used to write about the Bundesbank a lot! But that all changed when the European Central Bank came along and took the starch out of the collars of the Bundesbank… But they still have a say about monetary Policy in the Eurozone… The Bundesbank is very important in Eurozone, for they are the Central Bank of Germany, which happens to be the largest economy of the Eurozone…
Guess who they call on phone when they have a question about monetary policy? Yes, you guessed it! ( A little organiation for the Eurozone for you this morning !)
Circling the Wagons regarding Gold.. Ed Steer had this article in his letter yesterday, and so I borrowed it to use here… “Some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure even as the U.S. Federal Reserve takes a more assertive stance on inflation.
Amundi SA, Europe’s largest asset manager, bought bullion on the expectation it will return to $5,000/oz by year-end. Fund managers at Pictet Asset Management, Robeco Institutional Asset Management and Fidelity International also added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion’s retreat from an all-time high.
“Gold is an asset that we consider to be cheap, a good hedge and reasonably liquid,” said Lorenzo Portelli, head of cross-asset strategy at Amundi Investment Institute.”
Chuck again… I’d say that Gold is more than “reasonably liquid”… It IS LIQUID! I’m sure this guy was just trying to keep the hype bole to an even level…
The U.S. Data Cupboard gets back on board with some prints today, leading off with the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims… And then PPI (Wholesale Inflation) for August will print… The forecasters are calling for a large upward move in PPI, so I guess we’ll see, eh? So, if PPI is printing today, that means the STUPID CPI will print soon, and tomorrow is soon enough!
And to finish off, Ron Paul, says people should own Gold, and not the Gov’t… Seems like a very good statement to me!
To recap… The dollar is in trouble, Gold & Silver have great days yesterday, an the price of Oil soars higher, where the 10-year Treasury gets back to seeing its yield rise, this time to 4.85%
For What It’s Worth… Well, if you’ve been reading the Pfennig, you would already know that I don’t hold U.S. Treasury Sec. Bessent’s recent actions dear to me… In fact… He’s a blowhard! He told an audience at SMU recently, that, “I am the house now”… since he intervened to keep the Bank of Japan from selling their treasuries… Of course, he tried to sell the action as “helping the Japanese currency”… What a bunch of bunk! Oh, well, apparently, I’m not the only one that thinks he way off base here…
Here’s your snippet: ” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s recent maneuvers in the bond market have come in for some searing criticism from illustrious investor Stanley Druckenmiller — his mentor and longtime ally.
The billionaire investor, who worked with the Treasury secretary at Soros Fund Management, voiced his disapproval of Bessent’s tactics in a strongly worded op-ed published in the Wall Street Journal Monday. Headlined “Let the bond markets speak,”
Druckenmiller’s fault-finding focused on Bessent’s unscheduled announcement last week that the Treasury would at least double its purchases of long-dated bonds
Druckenmiller also strongly denounced the subsequent statement from Treasury Department officials about using the near–$1 trillion Treasury General Account to intervene in the bond market to suppress yields.
Druckenmiller’s critique was unambiguous: “This wasn’t liquidity management, it was price management — and a mistake far larger than $4 billion suggests.”
Druckenmiller’s opposition to Treasury policy in essence boils down to Margaret Thatcher’s famous dictum: “You cannot buck the market.”
‘The long-term Treasury is the most important price in the world. It is the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.’
Druckenmiller writes that “markets aggregate information no committee possesses, and prices are how that information reaches decision makers. The long-term Treasury is the most important price in the world. It is the only fiscal disciplinarian the U.S. has left.”
This is the central point of Druckenmiller’s argument: that governments expand commitments and refuse to rein in spending until “the political price of a rising long bond [yield] finally exceeds the political price of touching spending.”
A research note, also published Monday, by Citadel Securities strategist Nohshad Shah makes a similar point: “This amounts to financial repression at the margin. The bond market’s message is straightforward: fiscal or monetary policy should be tighter. Preventing Treasurys from clearing at lower prices does not eliminate pressure. It merely shifts it elsewhere.”
What annoys Druckenmiller is not just the questionable wisdom of Bessent’s strategy but the necessity. He emphasizes, ”There were no failed auctions, no dealer balance-sheet seizure, no forced unwinds.” In short, there was no market dysfunction that Bessent was obliged to address, just the market pricing Treasury yields at roughly the same rate the U.S. economy grows.
When the national debt has just hit $40 trillion and the budget deficit is around 6% of GDP, Druckenmiller suggests markets are a better judge of bond prices than the Treasury is.”
Chuck Again… Stanley Druckenmiller is right… He’s so smart and educted, and trustworthy… I’m just saying…
Market Prices 9/10/2026: American Style: A$ .7190, kiwi .5829, C$ .7236, euro 1.1625, sterling 1.3525, Swiss $1.2316, European Style: rand 16.3136, krone 9.2617, SEK 9.6416, forint 313.75, zloty 3.7198, koruna 20.8727, RUB 84.10, yen 154.15, sing 1.2669, HKD 7.8414, INR 95.44, China 6.7074, peso 16.74, BRL 5.1262, BBDXY 1,189, Dollar Index 98.96, Oil $96.21, 10-year 4.88%, Silver $65.59, Platinum $1,834.00, Palladium $1,335.00, Copper $676, and Gold… $4,374.
That’s it for today and this week… we finally received some rain last night, and since I couldn’t sleep, I sat there watching the rain fall… This took me back to right after my two huge cancer surgeries, when I would sit on the front porch, just to be outside and watch the sprinkler system work… My good friend, Mike Kettler, who’s fighting his own cancer right now, came down the street and sat with me for a couple of innings yesterday… It was good to see him out and about… I know that it’s the little things that make your day when you are going through what he’s going through right now… Steelers Wheel takes us to the finish line today with their big 70’s song; Stuck in The Middle With You… I hope you have a Tub Thumpin’ Thursday today, and Please remember to Be Good To Yourself!
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