Market watchers tracking Bitcoin are focusing on four macro indicators they consider more telling than traditional U.S. M2 data. These indicators include the Japanese M2 money supply, global central bank liquidity, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, and the supply of Treasury bills.
Japanese M2 is a broad measure that includes cash, demand deposits, savings accounts, time deposits under $100,000, and money market fund balances, and it stood at 127,492.34 billion yen in February. Its expansion is viewed as a classic liquidity catalyst.
Meanwhile, global M2 has risen roughly 8% since January 2025 and 5% over the past year. This growth pace has historically fed risk assets like Bitcoin with a lag, as central banks respond to economic stress.
Central-bank liquidity (CBL) offers a more immediate read on available capital. After remaining lukewarm throughout the 2022-2025 bull market and being lower today than three years ago, the outlook has turned mildly positive heading into the current four-year cycle’s down phase.
Analyst Weiss Crypto expects downside pressure to ease once liquidity bottoms, likely in the first quarter of 2026. This change should pave the way for extended sideways trading rather than a steep 70-80% crash.
 
Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield is currently hovering near 4.42%, up 46 basis points since late February. It influences borrowing costs across the economy and sets the tone for risk assets. The recent surge, driven partly by oil prices and Middle East tensions, has tightened financial conditions and forced investors to weigh the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates.
Bitcoin has held up better than equities during the move, but sustained yield pressure could weigh on the token if it pushes toward the 4.5% zone.
Finally, Treasury bill supply is the single most correlated driver. According to research from market maker Keyrock, T-bill issuance has shown an 80% correlation with Bitcoin prices since 2021 and leads Bitcoin prices by roughly 8 months. Every 1% shift in global liquidity tends to move Bitcoin 7.6% in the following quarter.
With $38 trillion in U.S. debt maturing over the next four years, analysts forecast that annual T-bill issuance will ramp to $600-800 billion through 2028.
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