Meta Stock: What Wall Street Expects from Earnings Wednesday

TLDR

• Meta Platforms (META) stock slipped 0.55% and is up about 9% this year, per Morningstar.
• Morgan Stanley raised its price target to $820 from $775 and kept a Buy rating.
• Wall Street expects Q3 EPS of $6.66 and revenue of $63.34 billion, up about 24%.
• Morningstar rates the stock three stars with a fair value estimate of $850.
• Meta reports Wednesday, Oct. 21, after the close, with Muse adoption and capex in focus.

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Meta Platforms (META) stock slipped 0.55% in the latest session as investors get ready for third-quarter results. The company reports Wednesday, Oct. 21, after the close.

Meta Platforms, Inc., META

The stock is up about 9% this year by Morningstar’s count. TipRanks puts the gain at 7.2%.

Morgan Stanley’s new $820 target implies about 15% upside. The Wall Street average of $832.58 points to 18%.

Morgan Stanley analyst Brian Nowak kept a Buy rating and lifted his target from $775. He expects stronger core advertising and AI subscription products to lift 2027 and 2028 GAAP EPS estimates by 1% and 3%.

Wall Street expects EPS of $6.66 for the quarter. Revenue is projected to rise about 24% to $63.34 billion.

What Analysts Are Saying

Nowak also raised his 2027 and 2028 revenue estimates by 1% and 2%. He pointed to solid ad trends and better return on ad spend from AI-driven ad products.

His payments and other revenue forecasts rose by $1 billion for 2027 and $2 billion for 2028. He ties that to high-margin Muse and business AI subscriptions.

Higher costs take back some of that gain. Total expense forecasts rise 1% in both years because of Enterprise Platform sales efforts.

Deutsche Bank analyst Benjamin Black also kept a Buy rating with an $820 target. His channel checks show core advertising is solid, helped by higher engagement.

Black raised his Q3 revenue estimate to $63.7 billion from $63.1 billion. He expects Muse monetization to build as the product expands.

TipRanks shows 39 Buys and six Holds, a Strong Buy consensus. Morningstar is more reserved, with a three-star rating and a view that the stock is fairly valued.

What to Watch in the Report

Morningstar says Muse agent adoption is the top item for investors. It wants details on usage, trends and how Meta plans to make money from it.

Meta landed near the top of its guided range in the last two quarters. Doing it again would put revenue near $63.8 billion.

Full-year capex is guided to $130 billion to $145 billion. That works out to $40 billion to $47 billion a quarter in the second half, and free cash flow will probably go negative.

Morningstar will listen for any word on 2027 capex. Last quarter the CFO talked about “flexibility,” which Morningstar reads as a dodge.

It is also watching for a signed deal to sell compute to an outside customer. Any new legal charges on top of the second quarter’s $2.4 billion are on the list too.

For comparison, Meta posted GAAP EPS of $1.05 in the year-ago quarter. Adjusted EPS was $7.25 excluding a one-time tax charge, and the company reports Wednesday after the close.