The macro headwinds that drove bitcoin’s worst ETF month on record are fading, Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, told CoinDesk in emailed comments.
Oil has fallen back below pre-war levels as the Strait of Hormuz reopened faster than expected and Gulf supply recovered, removing the energy-driven inflation impulse that pushed the Fed hawkish through June. Warsh’s July 1 comments acknowledging that inflation risks have come down read as a tonal shift from the June dot plot, and a softening labor market points the same way.
Together, Köymen says, those factors argue for rate hike probabilities to reprice lower.
Crypto’s own signals are moving in the same direction. Long-term holders have returned to net accumulation and whales have been building aggressively into weakness, a cohort Köymen noted has historically timed entries better than the newer, non-native investors accessing bitcoin through ETFs.
With bitcoin trading below its 200-day moving average and beneath the previous cycle’s high, he sees the entry point as relatively attractive.
Sygnum expects ETF outflows to turn positive in July, though summer liquidity means any inflows will likely be modest rather than a flood.
A July 17 congressional hearing on the CLARITY Act, which would establish clearer rules for crypto assets, is a separate watch item. A surprise push toward passage could act as an additional catalyst.
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