Alvin Lang
Jul 01, 2026 08:24
A new survey shows Rep. Jared Moskowitz up 32 points in Florida’s 25th District Democratic primary, an early signal of intraparty strength ahead of voting.
Florida-25 Democratic Primary Poll: Jared Moskowitz Jumps to a 32-Point Lead as Polymarket Reprices 2028 Election Risk
A new poll showing Rep. Jared Moskowitz holding a 32-point lead in Florida’s 25th District Democratic primary landed as Polymarket traders continued to reprice long-dated U.S. politics risk. In Polymarket’s “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market, the contract for Donald Trump was last priced at 1.45%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket pricing shows JD Vance leading the 2028 election winner market at 19.85% implied odds, while Donald Trump is at 1.45%.
- Traders nudged pricing higher for Trump versus the prior 16.4% reference in the feed, while the market remained focused on broader 2028 positioning rather than a single race.
- The contract is scheduled to resolve on 2028-11-07, with the market currently active and trading.
A poll found Rep. Jared Moskowitz leading by 32 points in Florida’s 25th District Democratic primary. The survey result puts Moskowitz well ahead of other Democrats competing for the nomination. The race has drawn attention as candidates position for the primary contest in a South Florida district. The poll snapshot offers an early read on the intraparty landscape ahead of voting. The report framed the margin as a decisive advantage for the incumbent at this stage.
Polymarket 2028 Market Data: $643M Volume With JD Vance at 19.85% and Trump at 1.45% Implied Odds
On Polymarket, the “Presidential Election Winner 2028” market had $643,083,851 in volume, with pricing implying a tight top tier and a long tail of outcomes. JD Vance led at 19.85% Yes / 80.15% No, while Marco Rubio traded at 15.25% Yes / 84.75% No and Gavin Newsom at 12.25% Yes / 87.75% No. Farther down the ladder, Jon Ossoff was 8.70% Yes / 91.30% No, and Donald Trump was 1.45% Yes / 98.55% No, signaling traders see his path as low-probability versus multiple alternative contenders.
Whether sustained volume concentrates further in the top two or three outcomes, or rotates into mid-tier names, as the market approaches its 2028-11-07 resolution date.
Beyond Florida-25: Other High-Volume U.S. Politics Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Watching Today
Away from Florida-25 and the longer-dated 2028 pricing, activity on Polymarket has also clustered in a handful of high-volume geopolitical and cross-cycle political contracts. In “Republican Presidential Nominee 2028,” Robert F. Kennedy Jr. led at 49.0% with $666,931,174 in volume, while “Venezuela leader end of 2026?” priced Nicolás Maduro at 79.75% on $92,244,174 as traders tracked shifting regime-risk odds. Elsewhere, “Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)” showed Starmer – UK PM at 94.5% with $14,653,623 traded, and “Trump out as President before 2027?” held at 91.5% No on $9,442,122.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | -3.1 |
| 7d | -3.1 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Nov 07, 2028 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$643,083,851
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| JD Vance | 19.9% | 80.2% |
| Marco Rubio | 15.2% | 84.8% |
| Gavin Newsom | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| Jon Ossoff | 8.7% | 91.3% |
+33 more strikes not shown
Related Markets
Sources
Image source: Shutterstock
Be the first to comment