Musk’s Tesla compensation weakens Ellison’s chances of topping billionaires index

Tesla’s fulfillment of Elon Musk’s 2018 compensation plan, delivering options on 304 million shares, has pushed the market on Larry Ellison being the richest person on December 31 to 1.2% YES.

Musk’s net worth is set to jump substantially with the compensation package. That weakens Ellison’s chances of topping the Bloomberg Billionaires Index by year-end. The odds sit at 1.2% YES across all sub-markets, effectively unchanged and showing no trader confidence in an Ellison overtake.

The market for Ellison’s wealth status is thin, with no daily volume. The flat term structure suggests traders see little potential for Ellison to close the gap. The December 31 contract holds at 1.2%, with 251 days remaining and no sign of movement in either direction.

At 1.2¢, buying YES offers a 83.3x return — high risk, low confidence. Musk’s financial trajectory, driven by Tesla’s compensation package, keeps him well ahead. Traders betting on Ellison would need a major Musk setback or an unexpected Ellison windfall to collect.

Watch for announcements from Musk’s other ventures (SpaceX, xAI), which could widen the gap further. On the other side, any large moves in Oracle’s stock price could shift Ellison’s standing.

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