Near Protocol (NEAR) Could Lose 20% of Price Following 15% Correction

After one of the sharpest rallies of the year, Near Protocol has hit its first significant wall. NEAR has dropped about 15% from its most recent local high of about $5.58, and it is currently trading at $4.78 on the daily chart. 

Descending dynamic

The move came after a nearly vertical increase of more than 200 percent from the $1.60 to $1.80 range in August, and the decline might just be the beginning of a deeper cooldown. The technical picture encourages prudence. After a long run, the most recent daily candle is a classic bearish reversal pattern with a long red body that engulfed the previous green session.

The price has since fallen below the $5.00 psychological level after sellers intervened forcefully at the top, as evidenced by the wick reaching $5.58. The September 23 red candle also saw a spike in selling volume, indicating that distribution started well before the most recent decline. 

Market isn’t stable

Additionally, momentum indicators are flashing caution. Before sharply declining, the relative strength index moved deep into overbought territory and momentarily approached the 85 area. Stretched readings seldom resolve sideways, and the cooling off frequently manifests as a wider retracement. The difference between the price and its moving averages conveys the same information. 

The blue mid-term line at $3.00, the long-term averages between $2.20 and $2.60, and the short-term average near $3.70 are all significantly above NEAR. A drop to the $3.80 to $3.70 range would indicate a 20% drop from the current level. 

Prices that are this far from their averages typically move back toward them. It makes sense to target that zone. It coincides with both the rising short-term moving average, which may serve as dynamic support, and the breakout area around $3.80, where the rally picked up speed. The $3.00 area would be the next significant test below it. 

In order to invalidate the reversal signal and reopen the path to the $5.58 high, bulls need to recover above $5.00 with significant volume. The risk balance is tilted further downward until that occurs.