Crypto hackers have reportedly stolen over $17 billion in 518 incidents over the past decade, according to DefiLlama. The “Another crypto hack over $100m by December 31” market sits at
The latest incident is a $290 million exploit on Kelp DAO’s rsETH bridge, linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group. With 251 days left until the market resolves, traders appear certain of further major breaches at these odds.
The Kelp DAO exploit fits a pattern of DPRK-linked hacking that includes a $1.5 billion breach at Bybit last year. The market’s 100% YES odds for another significant hack reflect near-universal expectation that state-sponsored groups will continue targeting crypto infrastructure. The frequency and scale of these operations have increased year over year.
The hack also affects Bitcoin sentiment. Though current odds for Bitcoin hitting $60,000 in April are unavailable, large-scale exploits tend to weigh on confidence across crypto markets, slightly increasing the probability of downward price movement.
For traders considering the contrarian NO side, the payout math is straightforward. Betting against another $100m+ hack by year-end requires believing that security measures will improve enough, or hacking activity will drop sharply enough, to break a decade-long trend. Given Lazarus Group’s continued operations, that bet looks poor.
Watch for developments from cybersecurity firms like CertiK and SlowMist, and any further reports from on-chain investigators like ZachXBT. Their findings could confirm additional exploits that have already occurred or are in progress.
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