Oil Prices Fall as Russia Says Diesel Exports May Top U.S. Deal Levels

TLDR

• Brent crude fell about 1.5% to $105.09 a barrel, and WTI fell about 1.7% to $92.11 on Tuesday.
• Russia said it can export more diesel than the levels in its supply deal with the U.S.
• Goldman Sachs said extra Russian diesel would cut wholesale prices by only $1 to $2 a barrel.
• Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and Strait of Hormuz risks limited the drop in oil prices.
• A Houthi attack on Riyadh’s airport on Saturday left 12 people dead and more than 300 injured.

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Oil prices fell on Tuesday after Russia said it may export more diesel than planned under a supply deal with the U.S. Traders also kept an eye on supply risks in the Gulf.

Brent crude futures fell about 1.5% to $105.09 a barrel by 04:32 ET. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures dropped about 1.7% to $92.11 a barrel.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak spoke late on Monday. He said Russia can return diesel exports to levels above those outlined by President Donald Trump.

Russia Diesel Deal Details

On Friday, Trump said Russia had agreed to supply diesel to global markets. His administration also temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel.

🇺🇸🇷🇺 BREAKING: The US has temporarily WAIVED sanctions on Russian diesel, including imports into America, until April 2027.

The Treasury’s new license allows the sale, delivery and import of Russian-origin diesel through April 7, 2027.

Russian diesel has been banned from the US… https://t.co/XxnLLIKGRp pic.twitter.com/dIovPDVqQy

— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) October 9, 2026

The agreement lets Russia supply diesel to the U.S. and global markets for six months. Trump defended the decision on Monday in a Truth Social post.

He said the European Union had spent billions of dollars on Russian energy imports. He added that he made the right decision for Americans.

U.S. lawmakers from both parties criticized the move. They warned it could weaken sanctions placed on Moscow over the war in Ukraine.

Trump also announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine. Reports say Russia has struck Ukrainian energy targets since the announcement.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Axios the ceasefire was “news for me.” He said Ukraine would accept one if Russia did.

Goldman Sachs said extra Russian diesel is unlikely to ease fuel prices much. It estimated that 800,000 metric tons, or about 6 million barrels, would cut wholesale diesel prices by $1 to $2 a barrel in the U.S. Gulf Coast and Europe.

The bank said Russian refinery outages rose by 3 million barrels per day from a year earlier. That limits how much Moscow can raise output.

Goldman also said U.S. diesel inventories are down 14% from a year ago. Visible stocks in China fell 11%.

It linked the shortages to seven straight months of falling global diesel production. Seaborne exports fell by 1.4 million barrels per day, or 20%, year on year.

Gulf Supply Concerns

Analysts at ING said the market is more worried about the Middle East. They pointed to Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and risks to Persian Gulf oil flows.

A Saudi-led coalition in Yemen began a new offensive earlier this month. It aims to retake Houthi-held areas, including land near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a key route for Saudi oil.

The U.S. and Iran remain in a stalemate over the Strait of Hormuz. Tanker traffic briefly improved in September, but new attacks on ships have threatened oil flows again.

On Saturday, Houthi militants attacked King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh. The attack left 12 people dead and more than 300 injured.