Oldest Bitcoin Holders Now Moving Coins at Record Rates: What’s Happening?

The oldest Bitcoin holders, those who have held for more than 10 years, have begun moving their coins at an unusual rate.

As Bitcoin crashes from its May 10 high of $82,000 to the current price of $75,400, data shows that some of the network’s oldest holders have started moving coins at unusually high levels. 

Key Points

• Bitcoin’s oldest holders have begun moving coins at historically high levels.
• 10-year-plus Bitcoin holders reached the 97th percentile in spending activity across the past decade.
• This group moved 51,350 BTC over 30 days, but their balances remained near record highs.
• Matthew Sigel says quantum migration may be responsible for the recent unusual activity.
• Around 6.9 million BTC remain quantum vulnerable because their public keys already appear on-chain.

Bitcoin’s Oldest Holders Awaken

Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, recently discussed the trend in a post on X. Sigel said Bitcoin holders who have kept coins for more than 10 years are now moving them at record levels, even though the total balances held by this group still remain close to all-time highs. 

According to him, large-scale quantum migration and the gradual aging of Bitcoin supply may be the factors behind these movements, which explains why the activity has not led to a major drop in long-term holdings.

Sigel also highlighted weakness among holders who bought Bitcoin between one and three years ago. According to him, balances in that group have dropped to between the second and tenth percentiles compared to historical levels. 

Data Confirms Activity Spike From 10-Year Holders

An accompanying chart from VanEck confirms this high activity. The report groups holders based on when they originally bought Bitcoin and compares current spending activity against past behavior across 1-year, 2-year, 4-year, and 10-year periods.

Notably, the 10-year-plus group reached the 89th percentile over 1 year, 91.6th over 2 years, 94th over 4 years, and 97th over 10 years. This cohort moved 51,350 BTC during the 30-day period, marking the smallest in the chart.

For context, the 97th percentile reading over 10 years means these holders are currently moving coins more actively than during 97% of similar 30-day periods over the past decade. 

While the transfer volume looks smaller than that of other groups, the recent readings are still important because very few coins from that era remain untouched. 

The data shows that wallets that sat dormant through the 2017 peak, the 2018 collapse, the 2021 highs, the FTX crash of 2022, and every cycle in between are now reactivating at a historically extraordinary rate.

Quantum Migration May Explain the Sudden Moves

However, it remains unlikely that the activity comes from large-scale selling. Notably, Sigel noted that quantum migration appears to be one of the main reasons behind the recent spike in movements from old wallets.

For the uninitiated, quantum migration involves moving very old Bitcoin, especially coins held for more than 10 years, from older wallet formats that could become vulnerable to future quantum computers. 

Many early holders now move funds into newer and safer address formats like Taproot and SegWit as concerns about future security risks continue to grow.

Current estimates show that about 6.9 million BTC may still be vulnerable because their public keys have already appeared on-chain. This figure includes around 1.7 million BTC stored in older Pay-to-Public-Key formats. 

In April, Jameson Lopp and other contributors introduced BIP-361, a proposal that presents a gradual move toward quantum-resistant signature systems. The proposal could also include deadlines that would force holders to move older coins before they become frozen or unusable.

Concerns around quantum computing have increased after NIST finalized post-quantum cryptography standards. At the same time, fears continue to grow that future quantum computers could eventually break ECDSA encryption using Shor’s algorithm.

Other Bitcoin Holding Cohorts

While the oldest holders drew the most attention, the 1-to-3-year groups recorded the largest transfer volumes in the data. 

Holders who bought Bitcoin 1 to 2 years ago reached the 84.5th percentile over 1 year, 85.1st over 2 years, 80th over 4 years, and 76th over 10 years. These investors moved 848,895 BTC, the highest volume among all groups.

Meanwhile, holders from the 3-to-5-year group remained mostly inactive. Their readings came in at 19.7 over one year, 21.6 over 2 years, 41 over 4 years, and 45 over 10 years, with 197,995 BTC moved. The 5-to-7-year group showed similar inactivity.

However, the seven-to-10-year group saw renewed activity. Specifically, these holders recorded 57.6 over one year, 73 over 2 years, 85 over 4 years, and 86 over 10 years, with 111,445 BTC moved over the 30-day period.