The host of a crypto-focused channel, known for more scripted, studio-based analysis, has shifted to a stripped-back, walking commentary format to outline what he believes could be the early stages of an XRP supply shock.
Drawing on recent exchange data, Cheeky Crypto argues that shrinking centralized exchange reserves and heavy whale accumulation are setting up a tighter supply environment that could amplify any future demand spike.
Exchange Reserves Slide As Whales Pull XRP Off Platforms
The core claim rests on a simple structure: a supply shock requires contracting supply and rising demand. According to the analyst, the first half of that equation is already visible on major platforms.
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He notes that Binance’s XRP reserves have dropped to about 2.21 billion XRP, the lowest level since February, with outflows now outpacing inflows.
“That doesn’t mean there’s 2.21 billion XRP for sale,” he stresses, explaining that those balances largely reflect user holdings, not inventory the exchange is actively selling.
Still, the decline signals that users are withdrawing coins rather than leaving them parked on the exchange.
Bybit is showing the same pattern with more XRP leaving than entering. Coinbase, however, is where he sees the most striking move: withdrawals there are currently accelerating at roughly 2.3 times the pace seen on other platforms, on top of what he recalls as a roughly 90% drawdown in Coinbase’s XRP reserves in late 2025.
Across venues, he cites roughly $4.6 billion worth of XRP absorbed by whale addresses over the last 12 months, suggesting large holders are systematically moving coins off exchanges and into more permanent storage.
Sideways Price Meets Cooling Sentiment.. But Mechanics Still In Place
Cheeky Crypto situates this against a frustrating year for XRP holders. After hitting about $3.66 in July 2025, XRP has since sold off and then drifted sideways, with the market now “kind of trying to hold support around one dollar.”
Retail sentiment has cooled to the point of capitulation as expectations of a sustained rally have repeatedly been disappointed.
Despite that, he argues the on-chain and exchange data “hasn’t overly changed,” and the mechanics for a potential supply squeeze have been “bubbling in the background” since late 2024.
What’s missing, in his view, is the demand side: a renewed spark of interest from either institutions or retail that would have to interact with a thinner pool of immediately available XRP on exchanges.
If that demand does arrive, he expects any initial price spike to be met with skepticism as traders try to fade it, potentially triggering short liquidations in the derivatives market.
That could spiral into a short squeeze, more FOMO, and what he describes as a “flywheel effect” of rising prices and forced buying.
Cheeky Crypto cautions that this setup does not guarantee an imminent move and notes that Asian exchanges—major hubs for XRP trading—could be seeing different flows, for which he did not have current data.
But for investors willing to look past the daily candles, he frames the exchange reserve trends as an early signal worth monitoring, especially if volumes, withdrawals, and new demand begin to rise together.
He also reiterates operational risk: keeping XRP on centralized exchanges exposes holders to platform failures, arguing for a “redundancy strategy” of multiple exchanges and cold storage so that a market move isn’t undermined by a single point of defeat.
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The analyst argues it depends on two conditions: continued contraction of exchange-held XRP and a renewed surge in demand that must interact with that reduced supply.
Not yet in a sustained way, according to on-chain analyst Cheeky Crypto. XRP has largely been moving sideways near the $1 area despite the reserve draw-downs.
Binance and Bybit are seeing net outflows, but Coinbase stands out with withdrawals running about 2.3 times faster than on other platforms, on top of a large historical reserve drop.
Watch on-chain behavior and exchange balances rather than just price action; if demand returns while supply on exchanges remains tight, volatility to the upside could increase sharply.
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