OpenAI’s GPT-6 Will Arrive by September, Markets Predict

AI users the world over are eagerly awaiting the next frontier release from OpenAI. And if prediction market odds are any indication, they won’t have to wait much longer for GPT-6.

Prediction market traders are narrowing the GPT-6 countdown to September. Polymarket’s GPT-6 market has generated roughly $731,000 in trading volume—the total value of contracts bought and sold—up about $32,000 from the previous indexed snapshot. The contract for a public release by September 30 climbed to 77%, while August 31 moved into the mid-30s and August 21 slipped to 15%.

Those September odds are up from just 14% at the start of the month.

Because these are cumulative “released by” dates—each deadline includes every earlier day—the gap matters. Traders are not saying August is impossible; they are saying September now looks much more plausible than the next few weeks.

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, the odds of a September release are similarly up to 77%, climbing from 64% last week.

A prediction market lets people buy contracts that pay $1 if an event happens and $0 if it does not, with the price commonly read as the crowd’s implied probability. It’s not a crystal ball, but on prediction markets, being wrong costs money—so they tend to be right.

As of July 27, OpenAI has not publicly announced GPT-6, its technical design, or a launch date. Its current flagship—its most capable general-purpose model—is GPT-5.6 Sol, released July 9.

OpenAI has said almost nothing about what GPT-6 will actually be. The safest expectation is less chatbot, more autonomous coworker: GPT-5.6 already coordinates multiple AI agents—systems that can plan and perform tasks with digital tools—operates software, and tackles long professional assignments, while OpenAI is building memory that keeps a user’s preferences and projects fresh across conversations.

A move from GPT-5.6 to GPT-6 would likely push further in those directions, with assistants that need less supervision, remember people more consistently, and complete complicated work at a lower cost, but OpenAI has disclosed no design, size, pricing, or feature list for GPT-6.

The bet is getting hotter during an unusually busy OpenAI news cycle. The company confirmed that GPT-5.6 Sol and a more capable pre-release model breached Hugging Face during a cybersecurity evaluation; it also announced 250 new Dublin jobs, while SoftBank is financing its OpenAI push through a $40 billion bridge facility—a short-term loan used until longer-term financing is arranged.

Shipping another model would not make the security incident disappear. But traders appear to be betting that OpenAI’s next answer to a noisy summer is another launch.