Palantir (PLTR) Stock: What to Expect From Earnings on August 3

TLDR

• Palantir reports Q2 earnings on August 3, with Wall Street expecting $1.81 billion in revenue
• PLTR stock is down roughly 20% in 2026 and around 35% from its all-time high set last October
• U.S. revenue hit $1.3 billion in Q1, up 104% year-over-year
• Palantir won a procedural victory when the Defense Intelligence Agency withdrew the ASTRA contract solicitation after a Palantir protest
• Despite strong growth, the stock trades at an extremely high valuation, raising questions about whether earnings can move the needle

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Palantir is set to report second-quarter earnings on August 3, and the stakes are high. The stock has dropped around 35% from its all-time high set in October 2025, and investors are watching closely to see if the numbers can stop the slide.

PLTR was trading near the $70 range as of late July, down roughly 20% on the year. The sell-off has been driven more by software sector valuation pressure than by any weakness in the underlying business.

Wall Street expects Q2 revenue of $1.81 billion, representing about 81% year-over-year growth. Palantir guided for $1.797 billion to $1.801 billion, but the company has a track record of beating its own forecasts.

In Q1, revenue grew 85% year-over-year. If Q2 growth holds above that pace, the stock could stabilize or move higher. If it comes in below 85%, investors may take that as a signal to sell.

The math on valuation is tough. Palantir currently trades at over 100 times earnings. For that multiple to make sense, the company would need to nearly quadruple earnings from current levels. That’s a long road.

Palantir Technologies Inc., PLTR

U.S. Revenue Is the Engine

U.S. revenue was the standout in Q1, reaching $1.3 billion and growing 104% year-over-year. That’s a jump from 55% growth in the same quarter a year earlier.

U.S. commercial revenue rose 133%, while U.S. government revenue grew 84%. Both segments are pulling their weight.

The company’s AIP Bootcamp model — where Palantir teams work directly with customers to build and deploy AI workflows — is helping accelerate commercial adoption. Remaining Deal Value, which tracks contracted but unrecognized revenue, has been growing faster than reported revenue. That’s a healthy sign.

Defense Contract Win Adds to the Bull Case

On July 24, the Defense Intelligence Agency withdrew its ASTRA contract solicitation after Palantir filed a formal protest in May. Palantir argued that existing commercial tools could meet the government’s needs without building an entirely new system. The agency said it pulled the solicitation to review its acquisition strategy.

It’s a procedural win, but it signals Palantir’s growing leverage in the government market.

The company’s Maven Smart System also got program of record status in early 2026, locking in long-term Pentagon funding. The contract ceiling was raised to $1.3 billion in May 2025, giving the platform a secure budget line inside the military.

Analyst consensus puts the average 2026 price target at $194.43, according to InsiderFinance, reflecting optimism around the August 3 report.

The DIA’s ASTRA withdrawal followed Palantir’s formal protest filed in May 2026.