Veteran trader Peter Brandt believes Bitcoin may already be past the worst of the current bear-market phase, but he’s not dismissing the possibility of another sharp pullback before the broader uptrend fully matures. Speaking on Cointelegraph’s “Trade Secrets,” Brandt said there is “a good possibility” the market has formed the low and is now entering a new bull-market cycle.
The update comes with context from his earlier warnings. In July, Brandt cautioned that Bitcoin could revisit the high-$40,000 area. At the time of that July interview, Bitcoin was trading near $64,000 and later climbed to nearly $85,000 by the time of his most recent appearance. Cointelegraph noted that Bitcoin’s fall to around $58,000 in late June may have already marked a cycle bottom, though Brandt’s latest view allows for additional volatility.
Key takeaways
- Brandt says Bitcoin’s bear-market low may already be in, but expects the market could still shake out late buyers.
- He’s watching for a potential pullback toward the mid-$60,000s in early October, even if a bull cycle has begun.
- Brandt has raised his projection for Bitcoin’s late-2029 peak range to between $300,000 and $600,000.
- He argues that “narratives” used to explain price moves are often wrong, emphasizing market structure and cycle timing instead.
- On altcoins, Brandt remains skeptical of XRP’s investment appeal and favors Bitcoin-centric risk management for most investors.
From “October low” to “market beat me to it”
Brandt’s thinking has shifted since July, when he pointed to October as a potential timing window for a final bottom. In his latest commentary, he suggested that hindsight may already validate the market’s path: the decline to roughly $58,000 in late June could have fulfilled the cycle-bottom role earlier than he expected.
Even with that possibility, Brandt cautioned that investors may still face a corrective move. He described a scenario where “too many people” chase the market—buying the idea that the low is already secured and piling into the rally. In that case, a drop would serve as a reset, offering a better entry point for participants who missed the earlier leg of the uptrend.
Brandt’s framing aligns with a core trading idea: Bitcoin typically doesn’t move in a straight line. If the broader cycle is improving, the path may still include sharp retracements that test conviction and liquidity.
What would a pullback change for traders?
Brandt said one plausible outcome is a pullback toward $65,000 or $66,000 in early October. For traders and investors, the practical significance is less about predicting the exact bottom and more about managing opportunity and risk around momentum shifts.
In his view, late entries after a strong rebound can create crowded exposure. A decline toward a more favorable price level could “shake out” those late buyers, potentially making the next buying opportunity more attractive—especially for people looking for a defined-risk entry rather than chasing price after a breakout.
Brandt also indicated that his focus is not on hitting a calendar milestone like “$100,000 by year-end,” but rather on identifying conditions that make a trade or position easier to size and hold with restraint.
Higher targets for 2029—and a different way to think about upside
Alongside his near-term caution, Brandt expanded his long-range outlook. He raised his estimate for Bitcoin’s potential late-2029 high to a range of $300,000 to $600,000, up from the $250,000 to $300,000 band he previously discussed in July.
Brandt went further by saying there’s a “very good chance” the bull market could reach “half a million,” and he suggested that a $1 million Bitcoin by 2030 is not impossible. Still, he emphasized that the specific peak target doesn’t determine whether his framework is working.
In his remarks, Brandt highlighted that he has not allocated all available capital to Bitcoin, implying he expects to manage exposure over time rather than deploy everything at once. He also made clear that a less extreme top would not invalidate his overall trade thesis: if Bitcoin reaches around $350,000 in late 2029, he wouldn’t view it as a failed bull case, even if it doesn’t approach a $1 million headline.
Cycle timing over headlines—and skepticism toward “transactional” value
Brandt also addressed why he tries not to treat every market move as a response to specific news events. He referenced how markets often prompt traders to create narratives—claims that can be at least partly wrong. His guidance was blunt: “Let price be king.”
In his model, he places the Bitcoin halving roughly halfway in time between the bear-market low and the next peak. From there, he expects gains to accelerate toward the end of the cycle. He described the final three or four months as potentially accounting for about 30% of the total increase, an outlook that reinforces his focus on how cycles play out rather than on short-term explanatory headlines.
That approach extends beyond Bitcoin. Brandt remains skeptical of how some investors evaluate altcoins, particularly XRP. He argued that even if a token is used transactionally, that doesn’t automatically translate into investment value—comparing the logic to the U.S. dollar. In his view, people don’t buy an asset simply because it’s useful in transactions; they buy it for reasons that ultimately link to value capture and broader demand.
While he acknowledged that XRP has payment utility and that Ripple has banking partnerships, he still questioned whether those factors make XRP a strong investment case. By contrast, he said Ether and Solana fit better within his portfolio framework as alongside-Bitcoin holdings, whereas chasing the latest new token is another matter. For financially secure investors, he suggested a crypto allocation of up to 10%, with Bitcoin taking the largest portion—echoing his broader belief that trading and investing should be approached like a long process rather than a short sprint.
What to watch next is whether Bitcoin’s near-term trading pattern supports Brandt’s “low already in, then pullback” thesis—particularly around his early-October $65,000–$66,000 area—and whether market behavior shifts from rally-chasing to more measured accumulation after any correction.
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