Pierre Andurand’s oil fund plunges 52% amid market volatility

Pierre Andurand’s flagship oil fund fell 52% in early April, wiping out prior gains and leaving it down 37% year-to-date. The Crude Oil All Time High by April 30 market on Polymarket sits at 3.6% YES, up slightly from 3% a day ago but still reflecting low confidence in a price spike.

Brent crude swung from near $120 to around $101 following the Iran conflict, and Andurand’s losses track that reversal. Traders betting on WTI hitting $160 in April have grown less optimistic as the geopolitical situation cools and oil prices stabilize. The slight uptick from 3% to 3.6% is noise in a market that remains overwhelmingly bearish.

Andurand’s losses fit a broader sentiment shift. The WTI Crude Oil Price in April 2026 market, which resolves if WTI hits $160, is subdued with no significant volume or price movement. The U.S. and Iran are engaged in ceasefire talks, and traders appear to be waiting for clearer signals before taking positions.

The Crude Oil All Time High market is thin: daily face value of $72,279 but only $2,006 in actual USDC traded. It takes just $1,020 to move the price 5 percentage points, meaning small trades can cause outsized swings. The largest 24-hour price move was a 0.6-point increase, consistent with cautious positioning.

At 3.6% YES, a successful bet on crude oil hitting an all-time high would return a 27.8x payout. That bet requires believing in a major supply disruption or geopolitical escalation within the next week. Any new developments in the Iran conflict could shift sentiment quickly in a market this illiquid.

Watch for OPEC+ announcements, U.S. strategic petroleum reserve releases, and military developments in the Strait of Hormuz. Any of these could move the market.

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