Polymarket odds put Eizenkot at 51% for Israel PM ahead of Likud vote

Polymarket Reprices Israel Next PM Odds After Likud’s Scheduled Vote on Netanyahu Primaries

Polymarket traders are pricing Gadi Eizenkot as the front-runner to be Israel’s next prime minister, with his contract leading at 51.05% on about $28.90M in volume. The move follows a Likud internal vote scheduled for Monday, and the market’s pricing shows a widening gap between Eizenkot and Benjamin Netanyahu.

Key Takeaways

• Top outcome: Gadi Eizenkot at 51.05% implied odds (Netanyahu at 36.5%).
• Catalyst: a scheduled Likud vote on Netanyahu’s primaries proposal coincides with Eizenkot’s odds rising +11.95 pp versus the prior snapshot.
• Timing: the market resolves by 2026-12-31 (and remains active for trading).

A report says Likud members will vote on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s proposal to hold party primaries on Monday between 11:00 a.m. and 8:00 p.m., after the vote was postponed several times. Likud’s acting CEO David Sharan said a list of polling stations and addresses will be published on the party’s website.

Market Reaction: Eizenkot Jumps to 51.05% on ~$28.90M Volume as Netanyahu Trades 36.5% and Bennett 7.0%

This is a multi-outcome Polymarket contract: each candidate’s price is that candidate’s implied chance to be the next prime minister after the next election, not a standalone Yes/No on a single strike. Right now the market is concentrated at the top, with Gadi Eizenkot at 51.05% (No 48.95%) versus Benjamin Netanyahu at 36.5% (No 63.5%), while Naftali Bennett trails at 7.0% (No 93.0%) and everyone else is priced as a long shot (for example, Avigdor Lieberman at 2.6% / No 97.4%). The latest snapshot shows a sharp repricing higher for the leader: 51.05% current odds versus 39.1% previously, a +11.95 percentage-point jump alongside total volume of about $28.90M, signaling a fast shift toward a clearer favorite rather than a tightly clustered field. Even with that jump, the historical summary flags moderate volatility and a reversal_detected signal, which fits a market that has been moving in both directions before settling into a “strengthening” consensus. Because settlement is tied to who actually becomes prime minister by the resolution date (2026-12-31), traders are effectively buying a long-dated political outcome that can keep repricing as party processes, coalition math, and election timing evolve.

If the spread between the top two outcomes keeps widening (Eizenkot vs Netanyahu) without a comparable jump in mid-tier candidates like Bennett, that would confirm the market is treating new political signals as a two-horse race rather than a fragmented field heading into the long resolution window.

What Traders Watch Next on Polymarket: Election Timing, Coalition Math, and Cross-Market Signals (US Politics, Fed Cuts

Beyond the headline contract, traders often triangulate sentiment by watching adjacent Polymarket lines that react faster to near-term headlines and can ripple into longer-dated pricing. One that’s drawing attention is 77.5% “No” on “Israel closes its airspace by July 31?” with about $2.06M in volume, a positioning that can influence how participants think about immediate disruption risk versus business-as-usual assumptions. Keeping an eye on these parallel contracts helps contextualize whether fresh news is being treated as a short-term shock, a durable shift, or just noise across the platform’s broader event-driven markets.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$28,899,825

Top strike rungs

+14 more strikes not shown

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